The weaker the signal, the more weight you put on your prior. That isn't bias.

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Sep 16, 2024
8:48:30am

Coop All-American

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Coop

Previous username: CoopDizz
Bio page: Coop
Joined: Feb 5, 2009
Last login: Sep 18, 2024
Total posts: 44,403 (6,099 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

A peek into how just about every analytics ranking system is biased by preseason ratings

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Sep 16, 7:40am

Notre Dame at 8.....wow.

WJCougar

Sep 16, 7:42am

Should be a real challenge this weekend. Go Cougs!

inertiaman

Sep 16, 7:47am

Which of course, makes sense. A ranking system based entirely on 1 or 2 or even 3 games would be completely worthless.

TCuz

Sep 16, 7:52am

It would be limited, but this model is *worse* than worthless, because it creates capricious bias based on something

mvtoro

Sep 16, 10:13am

Dumb

RGGeemer

Sep 16, 7:59am

The weaker the signal, the more weight you put on your prior. That isn't bias.

Coop

Sep 16, 8:48am

I'm no numbers guy like you but I have been saying this for years.

CougaRR4L

Sep 16, 9:33am

Florida State anyone? WA beaten by WA St yet #15.

ImuaKahuku

Sep 16, 10:38am

rankings would be a laughing stock if they didn't do this however

Hill4Heisman

Sep 16, 10:47am

It would be better for them to look meaningless until they have actual meaning.

mvtoro

Sep 16, 11:14am

Or ideally, they could figure out how much to weight preseason priors, using historical data to get the best predictions

krindorr

Sep 16, 11:18am

Statistically/analytically this makes sense though; historically a better predictor than just overreacting to game or 2

krindorr

Sep 16, 11:13am

What makes the most sense is to not rank teams until at least part way in.

ImuaKahuku

Sep 16, 11:57am

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