Go ahead and create an OxCoug ranking system where you go in and just move teams around based on head to head results and see how it compares to these statistical models. I’m sure that would be great.

And I’m not making a wager, that shows you don’t understand my point here. I don’t care about UW vs Wazzu. for all I know Wazzu is better than UW. I’m talking in general.


Here’s an example. On April 15, the Dodgers lost to the Padres. The NL West was an extremely close race. Should a ranking system overly factor in that head to head result and the tight race and say that they had near even chances at the NL West crown? Of course not. The Dodgers are a much better team, and Fangraphs had them with a ~70% chance to win the division and the Padres with a 10%. Imagine being upset that the Padres just won a head to head game and that the division is nearly equal and a ranking system that said the two teams were equal. it would be nonsense.