For much of the Wasatch Front and some other areas, the cost to rent vs cost to buy relatively equivalent properties is way out of whack right now, and the cost to buy is so much higher than cost to rent that it doesn't make sense to buy in most areas of Utah given the current delta between the two. Rent is relatively far more affordable in these areas (though it isn't cheap). It seems like much of the market expected the fed to eventually buy a ton of MBS again and repress rates back down to below 4% to bring that ratio back more into alignment, but I think people are coming to terms with normalized rates staying normalized. Normalized, non-artificially repressed rates are a good thing for the market long term though. Utah prices would work fine with 3% rates, but homes are currently way overpriced for 6.5%+ rates. And the sales numbers reflect that, few are buying.

Fortunately Utah seems to be moving in the right direction though for prices to start to get better and more realistic/attainable to buy with current rates. Supply is very steadily increasing, demand is significantly reduced similar to how it is nationally, and there is a high active listing count and lots of new build inventory is available but not selling (due to prices too high, even with builder incentives). Anecdotally, I've been hoping to buy since 2021, and just a few years ago, there were very few listings on the major housing sites. Currently, there are tons of homes listed and it seems to be ever increasing numbers of homes being listed. There were very few choices then, there are tons of options and homes listed now. If demand and sales numbers continue to stay depressed, and inventory continues to build, that should bode very well for increasing price cuts and better relative affordability going forward. If sellers start dropping prices aggressively to try to move houses, it should hopefully get the cost to buy vs cost to rent equation back to a level where it starts to make sense to buy again instead of rent.

The other plus though, compared to the 2008 housing crash, is many, many people have a ton of equity and can afford to drop prices significantly without going underwater on their homes. Same for many distressed properties (absent those that bought very recently under high price/high rate terms or under temporary rate buy downs, etc.), many have equity where they can sell to avoid foreclosure. But in Utah, prices skyrocketed under repressed rates of 2020, and many people have tons of equity where they can cut prices significantly and still walk away with more money than they paid for a home. Much better than 2008 for the most part.

The numbers in the west as a whole also look really good. Most new build SFH homes for sale since 2007 (and currently 60% more than there were in 2019). Utah seems to be following a similar trend as the west region, with very low/depressed sales numbers, and lots of new build inventory and active listings. These graphs are interesting, if these trends continue, it should help a ton with affordability and making homes attainable to buy in Utah. At the current moment things are still out of reach and very expensive, but I'm optimistic for affordability going forward, seeing this trend of supply and demand start to significantly favor the supply side. It could help out a lot.

West:





Utah:





The Utah active listing number is also just barely starting to turn up from its seasonal low point, I think there is a good chance Utah could pass 13,000 listings at the high point in this year. That'll put it right back up in the range of 2016-2017, which would be very good for supply and inventory.