Conventional loans are doing fine but something is happening w/VA and FHA loans

Mar 30, 2025
9:22:05am

rcbyufan All-American

And the worry right now is the job market. Any significant job loss could start something.

Q4 FHA and VA Delinquencies on the Rise

“Although mortgage delinquencies rose only 10 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, the composition of the delinquencies changed,” said Marina Walsh of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/02/10/q4-fha-and-va-delinquencies-on-the-rise/

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rcbyufan

Bio page: rcbyufan
Joined: Aug 18, 2010
Last login: Apr 4, 2025
Total posts: 34,316 (1,241 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

So, according to FHA and other housing data, single-family mortgage delinquencies are conservatively around 5%...

Brisket Starter

Mar 29, 10:45pm

Listings always increase from winter to spring though. What increase is normal?

Superkid

Mar 29, 10:47pm

That number is YOY. Supply is up dramatically.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:05pm

Ah, ok

Superkid

Mar 29, 11:07pm

This, along with the fact that the big jump usually hits around late April to May. We don't see these numbers in March.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:07pm

I’ve noticed a bunch of houses for sale in my area lately.

Superkid

Mar 29, 11:18pm

Supply has been at near historic lows for years now. Has to start coming up

Cougarclaw

Mar 29, 11:24pm

This is way more than a reversion to the mean for many markets.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:34pm

Would you say that interest rates right now are high or average?

Cougarclaw

Mar 30, 9:38am

Average, maybe even a little lower than average. Id have to look.

rad dawg

Mar 30, 10:01am

While not great news, I don't think we can fairly compare to pre

paulb

Mar 29, 10:47pm

And back then mortgage rates didn't shoot up from 2.7% to 6.8% like they have now. The circumstances are different...

Brisket

Mar 29, 10:59pm

The rate shooting up leads me to believe you'll have lower default rates as no

paulb

Mar 29, 11:02pm

Yet despite not wanting to lose the killer rate, home sales and listings have increased like crazy year over year.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:06pm

I hope so

Zip

Mar 29, 10:48pm

Its not really comparable. I'm sure that figure is not good, but

LifeLongLakerFan

Mar 29, 10:50pm

Well, the early 1980s correction wasn't the same as the early 90s correction which wasn't the same as the correction

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:04pm

That's true, but you are comparing the two. I'm just explaining that

LifeLongLakerFan

Mar 29, 11:35pm

So you're saying we don't have to worry about a correction, potentially a massive one in some markets?

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:42pm

A correction is normal. I expect one. Frankly, I think we need one. It's a norma

LifeLongLakerFan

Mar 30, 12:24am

Won’t be as bad in Utah? Seems that’s likely to be one of the worse locations

ABCoug

Mar 29, 10:52pm

What did we expect when lenders were allowing 40-50% DTI ratios?

rad dawg

Mar 29, 10:55pm

I would say it will be more like a significant correction, although there are some localized areas where we could see a

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:08pm

Yeah Phoenix is starting to look ugly just like it does in down cycles.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:16pm

We are looking to move to the Phoenix area, but not for another 1-2 years.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:21pm

I want to move to Phoenix. That just might help.

Cougar Junkie

Mar 30, 12:39am

There’s a lot of people with $6k/month mortgages right now just trying to make ends meet until they can do the refinance

RdF3

Mar 29, 11:12pm

Yeah, unfortunately that might be a while.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:19pm

1) Who told them this? 2) Why did they believe it?

Cougar Junkie

Mar 30, 12:29am

Realtors and lenders.

RdF3

Mar 30, 8:38am

A correction is needed.

Busting Coveys

Mar 29, 11:22pm

Here are the numbers for all mortgages, methinks you should relax a little,

bulletproof

Mar 29, 11:26pm

Conventional loans are doing fine but something is happening w/VA and FHA loans

rcbyufan

Mar 30, 9:22am

Link? Where is your data?

BostonCougar

Mar 29, 11:28pm

I have several friends who bought new build homes in Utah in the last few years;

KayakCoug

Mar 29, 11:40pm

I have 2 friends that just sold homes due to their buy downs expiring this year.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:50pm

That's tough. At least they were able to sell. Imagine being underwater if

KayakCoug

Mar 29, 11:56pm

Making assumptions about interest rates is playing with fire.

Cougar Junkie

Mar 30, 12:25am

Single family construction starts are still too low, only grew about 1%

1984coug

Mar 30, 8:08am

The market correction is happening. I saw my house triple in estimates value in the last 5 -10 years. That’s insane. I

BYU Grounds

Mar 30, 8:34am

Home prices in Utah definitely need to adjust to current rates and incomes.

Q4 FHA and VA Delinquencies on the Rise

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