While there isn't specific data on the success rate of heat check shots, some evidence suggests that these shots are indeed less likely to be successful:
A study analyzing NBA shooting data from 2015-16 to 2020-21 seasons found that players who had a hot start (making their first few shots) tended to perform worse for the rest of the game, especially on 3-point shots. This could be due to players attempting more difficult "heat check" shots after a good start.

Research on the "hot hand" phenomenon in basketball has shown mixed results. A study of NBA free throws found a small positive effect, with players about two percentage points more likely to make their next free throw after making the previous one. However, this effect was not observed in field goal shooting, which would include heat check shots.

Earlier studies on college basketball players found no evidence of streak shooting or the "hot hand" effect in controlled experiments. This suggests that the probability of making a shot is not significantly affected by previous shot outcomes.

While these findings don't directly measure heat check shots, they imply that players who attempt more difficult shots after making a few consecutive baskets (as is often the case with heat checks) are likely to see a decrease in their shooting percentage. This aligns with the common observation that most heat check shots miss, as they are typically more challenging attempts taken from greater distances or against tighter defense.