their conference tourney just before the NCAA's, to a highly ranked team (or a bubble team playing for their lives).

This is especially true of teams that have been killing it and peaking just prior to conference tourneys. In conference tourneys, where essentially anyone can lose by just having an off night. This is also especially true because after a grueling conference season, these guys all know each other, and there's the revenge factor for losses in the season, and also the playing for their lives or seeding motivations. Conference tourneys, albeit fun to watch, are part fantasy land that is not reflective of the entire season reality, part luck of the draw, and part "fools gold" if you win out.