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Jan 3, 2025
2:35:53pm
bythenumbers All-American
Read my post on model calibration. I don't think I agree with his method.
To be fair, I can't access Twitter right now to evaluate what you're saying. But if he's simply saying the model is "wrong" every time the team with >50% chance to win loses then that isn't a very good measure of how good the model is. What you want to see is that when the model says a team has a 90%+ chance of winning it happens 90%+ of the time etc etc.

There are other statistical measures that can be used to evaluate performance. I think the stuff I linked to in the post covers this pretty well.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jan 3, 2025 at 2:35:53pm
Message modified by bythenumbers on Jan 3, 2025 at 2:36:41pm
bythenumbers
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bythenumbers
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