So you've got Oregon, Penn St, Indiana, Ohio St as B1G locks.

Texas, Georgia, Tennessee as SEC locks

Clemson/SMU winner as ACC lock
ND as a lock
Boise St/UNLV winner as G5 lock
ASU/Iowa St winner is Big 12 lock

So we have to unseat all of Bama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami. All of whom were either ahead of us (and won) or have consistently been ahead of us with the same number of losses and now fell back to that spot. Right now, I'd guess we're behind every one of those teams (as well as Iowa St).

Probably no higher than 17, passing Tulane and Clemson