There's a real real long shot to getting an at-large

Here's the teams that are ahead of a 10-3 BYU team that loses the CCG, no matter what

1. Oregon (possible losses to Washington and Ohio St)
2. Ohio St (possible loss to Michigan OR loss to Oregon)
3. Texas (possible loss to Texas A&M OR loss to Georgia)
4. Penn St (possible loss to Maryland OR loss to Oregon...if Ohio St loses)
5. Notre Dame (possible loss to USC)
6. Miami (possible loss to Syracuse or loss to SMU)
7. Clemson/South Carolina winner (SCAR is ahead and would stay ahead if they win and BYU loses since SCAR has no other games. If Clemson wins they MIGHT go to the CCG and lose, but if we do the same, they'd stay ahead)
8. Tennessee (playing Vanderbilt, but a 3 loss non champ BYU isn't making it over a 3 loss non champ SEC Tennessee)
9. Big 12 Champ
10. G5 Champ

So there's at least 10 teams that we realistically can't pass (with a CCG loss ...if we don't make it we could possibly pass a few of those). Not sure all those teams will be in ..but they're all ahead of us.  And if Texas isn't the SEC champ (Texas A&M and Georgia still in the mix) that's another spot taken.

Speaking of Georgia, here's teams that would need multiple losses for BYU to pass them

11. Georgia (3 loss non-champ BYU isn't passing 3 loss non-champ Georgia, so unless Georgia loses to both Georgia Tech AND Texas, they're staying ahead)

12. SMU (if SMU loses to Cal, then wins the CCG, they're in ahead of BYU. If they beat Cal, then lose to Clemson/Miami, they're ahead, they'd have to lose both)

So those are maybe possible teams we could pass... But extremely unlikely.  And then we'd also need all of the following teams to lose in their last game and they still might not drop behind us with our additional loss to a weak CCG opponent 

13. Indiana...against a terrible terrible Purdue

14. Alabama  (to Auburn)

15. Ole Miss (to 2-9 Mississippi St who has only beaten Eastern Kentucky and UMass)

16. Texas A&M (currently right behind us, but if they beat Texas and then lose to Georgia that probably jumps us beating Houston and then losing to Baylor)

We have a better chance of making the playoff NOT playing in the CCG than if we make and lose it.