had a static system without all the transfers, you are probably looking at about 3.75 incoming FR on average per year.

What follows is a total oversimplification that doesn't really fully take into account the difficult dynamics with injuries and player development wins and losses, etc.

In the portal era, you are losing more than just seniors every year to transfer, plus you have younger guys going pro. And maybe losing a half a guy to career-ending injury on average each year. We might need to replace more like 5-7 players every year on average assuming relatively stable coaching staff, instead of 3-4 like the old days or with a static (no transfer or early departure) system.

We want a few of those replacements to be veteran transfers to fill holes and take advantage of their experience. We want to land some FR that will be multi-year continuity guys, probably in many cases your LDS or local Utah kids that are in the 3-4* rating region.

I'm going to take 6 as right in the middle of 5-7, divide by three for category count of newcomers (transfer, project FR, impact FR) and say we probably want about 2 of each type each year on average. As an example, 2024 (13 scholarships only, new coach hire) landed nearly exactly on this with Catchings and Demin (2 impact FR), Koz and Crawford (2 developing FR), Keita and Mag (2 transfers), and Bosko (something of a mix of all three?). I think Bosko really fits the description of a transfer and is supposedly being classified as a junior.

Therefore, I'd make the guess that in the ideal situation the coaching staff will aim for 2-4 high signing probability one and done type elite impact FR each season, hoping to land 2 on average, but anywhere around 1.4-2.5 is probably just fine.