You guys know the point spread is the best predictor of the outcome? It’s off by

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Oct 24, 2024
4:21:31pm

Genghis Spreads All-American

You guys know the point spread is the best predictor of the outcome? It’s off by

An average of zero.

That’s because if someone had a model that will consistently best the spread, it’ll move the spread.

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Genghis Spreads

Previous username: BeefNoodleSoup
Bio page: Genghis Spreads
Joined: Feb 23, 2004
Last login: Oct 24, 2024
Total posts: 35,377 (316 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

You guys know the point spread is the best predictor of the outcome? It’s off by

Genghis Spreads

4:21pm

It isn't true that the point spread is "off by an average of zero". The easiest way to disprove this is that different

HarlemCoug

4:26pm

That doesn’t disprove anything. Different bookies can be off for different

Genghis Spreads

4:29pm

It isn't about the error being 0, it's about the betting being roughly equal on each side of the spread.

CougPrime

4:34pm

^^^ This. The spread moves to keep $$ bet on each team approximately equal,

AT Cougar

4:43pm

It’s not off by zero every game. It’s off by an average of zero.

Genghis Spreads

5:21pm

It isn't, though. It's based on bets, not results.

CougPrime

5:32pm

It is based on bets. But it’s the best predictor, for reasons I stated in the OP

Genghis Spreads

6:00pm

Bets spreads do not converge to zero error against the result. Feel free to start keeping track if you don't believe me

CougPrime

6:06pm

The point spread is designed to do one thing...

Adrielle

4:48pm

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