Great analysis. Thanks.

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Oct 21, 2024
9:48:32am

byugrad+fan Walk-on

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byugrad+fan

Bio page: byugrad+fan
Joined: Aug 26, 2020
Last login: Oct 21, 2024
Total posts: 86 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5 games—which

Crowd Factor

Oct 20, 11:40pm

This week is a scary one. Feels like CC. Two time zones. Undefeated. Quirky

Blueto

Oct 20, 11:44pm

That and UCF is good

zerome4sooners

5:40am

3-4 is good? You don't sleep on them but you shouldn't play

gopman

6:04am

Yes. They are good. Took ISU down to the wire and have great team speed.

All-American

6:13am

If we can win this game, I think we can run the table. This game worries me

rebelCoug

7:14am

I'll grant you that at the P4 level "anyone" can beat anyone on any

gopman

8:08am

They'll overcome all that. 8-0 is on its way.

BlueFever

8:55am

Agreed but the fact that we are facing a run heavy team two weeks straight

jre85

12:13pm

We have three solid corners in JRob, Marque Collins & Evan Johnson.

gopman

1:28pm

When I took Shane Reese’s introductory stats class at BYU, his favorite

BYU Sportz Fan

Oct 20, 11:51pm

<< Deleted >>

Cougar McGregor

9:12am

We've won our two games where we played poorly. Play well at UCF and it's a win.

dYrtbYkerYder

Oct 20, 11:53pm

Hate to break it to you but a 1 loss BYU misses the CCG if Iowa State and

OnEMoReTrY

1:26am

There's a lot of football to be played. Very likely those teams lose again

Y05

3:34am

We have the tiebreaker over Kansas St if we have one loss. We beat them.

cambo

6:59am

He's talking about a 3-way tie (KState, Iowa State, BYU)

Happy As Larry

9:04am

Wait wait, show the work for my edification. 1st tiebreaker is H2H, which we

RoboKayne

7:03am

They wouldn't. In that scenario BYU and Kansas St. make the title game

cougarfan84

7:43am

If it's more than 2 teams in the tie, head to head is ignored, unless the tied

BYUFootballisBack

9:02am

Thanks.

RoboKayne

11:29am

BYU 11-1 very likely in playoffs. Very few 1 loss teams missed the 4 team CFP

NYC and Japan

7:07am

For kicks, what if we are 10-1 going into the conference championship game, but lose that game? Are we in CFP at 10-2?

dingus79

9:15am

You mean 11-1 and 11-2, yes I think it unlikely an 11 win team misses CFP based

NYC and Japan

9:23am

Oh yeah, sorry, fuzzy math

dingus79

9:25am

Depends on how many 2-loss SEC and BigX teams there are

byugrad+fan

9:36am

Yes and no.

slatecoug

1:59pm

Problems arise if the ACC has 3 11+ win teams, Big 12 has 3 11+ win teams, ND

BYUFootballisBack

2:17pm

What are you talking about? First tiebreaker is H2H and BYU would be 1-0 while

cougarfan84

7:42am

Colorado was also mentioned. Would we be above them as well?

rebelCoug

7:54am

I ask because I don't know the tie breakers.

rebelCoug

7:54am

In a 3-way tie between Kansas St., BYU, and Colorado, it's also KSU and BYU.

cougarfan84

8:07am

Actually H2H only applies if all tied teams played each other or one beat all

zuko

8:00am

You're right. I missed that caveat in the rules. I'll have to look at the

cougarfan84

8:20am

OK. Looking at the tiebreakers, let's take the scenario where the favored team

cougarfan84

9:13am

These simulations agree with your thinking. Colorado very rarely gets in over us

zuko

9:16am

Right. If BYU is on the losing side of a multi-team tiebreaker, it's likely

cougarfan84

9:43am

Great analysis. Thanks.

byugrad+fan

9:48am

1-loss BYU makes the CCG in 95.7% of my simulations. Of course this depends on

zuko

7:58am

Statistically speaking, 100 football seasons in school history. 1 undefeated.

Y05

3:31am

RE: Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5

deja-blu

4:06am

Like Okie St, KU is looking like they're finally starting to wake up. They got some serious offensive talent.

SinkingQuffa

4:41am

LOL what? They played Houston...You could sleepwalk to a win against them.

kaladin58

6:44am

Houston plays hard. They're scrappy & play with pride, despite the youth & holes in the talent. They'd just come off

SinkingQuffa

6:53am

I’m going to focus on the wrong game. I hope I don’t ruin it for everyone.

HenderCoug

4:49am

ESPN FPI shows 10-2 is most likely

Tuskaloosa Cougar

5:34am

Yeah, I don't think that's what those numbers mean

CommodoreCoug

7:57am

10-2 is most likely

zuko

8:04am

Agree in the way it’s presented it’s not what they mean. But 10-2 is most likely

Tuskaloosa Cougar

8:20am

However the odds to win each game has never been higher, and most of them are

Trackster

7:05am

Also, statistically speaking, BYU was very likely to lose one of its first 7.

Mark

7:32am

While I want BYU undefeated I understand the odds are against us.

DazeofBlue

9:22am

I’m sorry, guys, but every Away game I go to BYU has lost and I’m going

ACrop

9:32am

I know someone that had only been to losses for the last ~10 seasons, hes

BYUFootballisBack

10:06am

Iowa State as lucky as we were to pull off that win last Saturday.

CaughtForaTouchdown

10:28am

Likely we lose two games. Capable of winning out. Whatever…great year!

texaskevin

12:29pm

Well, I'm sure Utah started prepping for BYU as of yesterday. I think they'd

Cheap Seats

12:30pm

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