BYU 11-1 very likely in playoffs. Very few 1 loss teams missed the 4 team CFP

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Oct 21, 2024
7:07:58am

NYC and Japan Truly Addicted User

BYU 11-1 very likely in playoffs. Very few 1 loss teams missed the 4 team CFP

Expand that to 12 teams and 11 win teams are highly unlikely to miss playoffs, even 11-2 likely in CFO. Highly likely in CCG with 1 loss. Don’t need to be in CCG to make CFP regardless.

3 way tiebreaker BYU loses, because their opponents have the worst record (right now, could change) contrary to preseason forecast of the toughest in conference schedule.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Oct 21, 2024 at 7:07:58am

Message modified by NYC and Japan on Oct 21, 2024 at 7:12:31am

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NYC and Japan

Previous username: (Private)
Bio page: NYC and Japan
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
Last login: Oct 21, 2024
Total posts: 3,869 (14 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5 games—which

Oct 20, 11:40pm

This week is a scary one. Feels like CC. Two time zones. Undefeated. Quirky

Blueto

Oct 20, 11:44pm

That and UCF is good

5:40am

3-4 is good? You don't sleep on them but you shouldn't play

gopman

6:04am

Yes. They are good. Took ISU down to the wire and have great team speed.

6:13am

If we can win this game, I think we can run the table. This game worries me

rebelCoug

7:14am

I'll grant you that at the P4 level "anyone" can beat anyone on any

gopman

8:08am

They'll overcome all that. 8-0 is on its way.

BlueFever

8:55am

Agreed but the fact that we are facing a run heavy team two weeks straight

jre85

12:13pm

We have three solid corners in JRob, Marque Collins & Evan Johnson.

gopman

1:28pm

When I took Shane Reese’s introductory stats class at BYU, his favorite

Oct 20, 11:51pm

<< Deleted >>

Cougar McGregor

9:12am

We've won our two games where we played poorly. Play well at UCF and it's a win.

Oct 20, 11:53pm

Hate to break it to you but a 1 loss BYU misses the CCG if Iowa State and

OnEMoReTrY

1:26am

There's a lot of football to be played. Very likely those teams lose again

Y05

3:34am

We have the tiebreaker over Kansas St if we have one loss. We beat them.

cambo

6:59am

He's talking about a 3-way tie (KState, Iowa State, BYU)

9:04am

Wait wait, show the work for my edification. 1st tiebreaker is H2H, which we

RoboKayne

7:03am

They wouldn't. In that scenario BYU and Kansas St. make the title game

cougarfan84

7:43am

If it's more than 2 teams in the tie, head to head is ignored, unless the tied

BYUFootballisBack

9:02am

Thanks.

RoboKayne

11:29am

BYU 11-1 very likely in playoffs. Very few 1 loss teams missed the 4 team CFP

NYC and Japan

7:07am

For kicks, what if we are 10-1 going into the conference championship game, but lose that game? Are we in CFP at 10-2?

dingus79

9:15am

You mean 11-1 and 11-2, yes I think it unlikely an 11 win team misses CFP based

NYC and Japan

9:23am

Oh yeah, sorry, fuzzy math

dingus79

9:25am

Depends on how many 2-loss SEC and BigX teams there are

byugrad+fan

9:36am

Yes and no.

slatecoug

1:59pm

Problems arise if the ACC has 3 11+ win teams, Big 12 has 3 11+ win teams, ND

BYUFootballisBack

2:17pm

What are you talking about? First tiebreaker is H2H and BYU would be 1-0 while

cougarfan84

7:42am

Colorado was also mentioned. Would we be above them as well?

rebelCoug

7:54am

I ask because I don't know the tie breakers.

rebelCoug

7:54am

In a 3-way tie between Kansas St., BYU, and Colorado, it's also KSU and BYU.

cougarfan84

8:07am

Actually H2H only applies if all tied teams played each other or one beat all

zuko

8:00am

You're right. I missed that caveat in the rules. I'll have to look at the

cougarfan84

8:20am

OK. Looking at the tiebreakers, let's take the scenario where the favored team

cougarfan84

9:13am

These simulations agree with your thinking. Colorado very rarely gets in over us

zuko

9:16am

Right. If BYU is on the losing side of a multi-team tiebreaker, it's likely

cougarfan84

9:43am

Great analysis. Thanks.

byugrad+fan

9:48am

1-loss BYU makes the CCG in 95.7% of my simulations. Of course this depends on

zuko

7:58am

Statistically speaking, 100 football seasons in school history. 1 undefeated.

Y05

3:31am

RE: Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5

deja-blu

4:06am

Like Okie St, KU is looking like they're finally starting to wake up. They got some serious offensive talent.

SinkingQuffa

4:41am

LOL what? They played Houston...You could sleepwalk to a win against them.

kaladin58

6:44am

Houston plays hard. They're scrappy & play with pride, despite the youth & holes in the talent. They'd just come off

SinkingQuffa

6:53am

I’m going to focus on the wrong game. I hope I don’t ruin it for everyone.

HenderCoug

4:49am

ESPN FPI shows 10-2 is most likely

Tuskaloosa Cougar

5:34am

Yeah, I don't think that's what those numbers mean

7:57am

10-2 is most likely

zuko

8:04am

Agree in the way it’s presented it’s not what they mean. But 10-2 is most likely

Tuskaloosa Cougar

8:20am

However the odds to win each game has never been higher, and most of them are

Trackster

7:05am

Also, statistically speaking, BYU was very likely to lose one of its first 7.

Mark

7:32am

While I want BYU undefeated I understand the odds are against us.

DazeofBlue

9:22am

I’m sorry, guys, but every Away game I go to BYU has lost and I’m going

ACrop

9:32am

I know someone that had only been to losses for the last ~10 seasons, hes

BYUFootballisBack

10:06am

Iowa State as lucky as we were to pull off that win last Saturday.

CaughtForaTouchdown

10:28am

Likely we lose two games. Capable of winning out. Whatever…great year!

texaskevin

12:29pm

Well, I'm sure Utah started prepping for BYU as of yesterday. I think they'd

Cheap Seats

12:30pm

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