If we lose a close game on the road to UCF and then a close game in the conference champ I think there's still a path. So do a bunch of non-BYU fan ESPN folks. It will require teams ahead of us also losing. But there are 7 spots up for grabs and big10 and sec are going to potentially cannibalize each other. For an even more objective view, ESPN fpi gives us a 42 percent chance to make the playoff, but only a 24 percent chance to win the conference.