Goal #2 is also more BYU-centric than opponent- centric. Win all but 1 or maybe 2 games, and they should also make the playoff.
Beyond that, I disagree with a few of your points.
Utah is not done losing. Never root for them to win.
Arizona over Colorado is better for BYU, as is Baylor over TT. A few reasons: wins over bowl eligible P4 teams will be taken into consideration, and BYU wants a cushion to help them make the conference championship game even if they drop one or 2 they shouldn't.