Overall (and on average), it's been more accurate than I would have guessed. Since inception in 2014, it's almost exactly right ... on average. Though there have been some larger misses in there. Basically, the best guess is that we'll finish within 15-20 of preseason FPI, equally likely in either direction

So realistically, on average we are going to finish about where FPI placed us, maybe a spot higher (depending on how much weight you give the COVID season).

Normally the error is around 15-20 spots (though equally likely in either direction) meaning that it's quite likely we fall in the 53-93 range at end of season. 

The only seasons where our preseason FPI rank has been more than 20 off are 2020 (COVID), 2021 (limited 2020 data due to COVID) and 2017 (...let's just not discuss that one)

2014 preseason -> https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2014/5/21/5738866/texas-longhorns-rank-25-in-2014-preseason-fpi

2015 preseason -> https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/102380/102380

2016 preseason -> https://www.mlive.com/spartans/2016/04/michigan_state_football_34th_i.html

2017 preseason -> https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/129505/ohio-state-is-no-1-in-preseason-fpi-1-0

2018 preseason -> https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22423732/clemson-tigers-not-alabama-crimson-tide-top-fpi-preseason-ranking

2019 preseason -> https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25988761/clemson-tigers-get-best-alabama-crimson-tide-again-fpi-preseason-rankings

2020 preseason -> https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28708116/2020-preseason-college-football-fpi-breakdown

2021 preseason -> https://247sports.com/college/usc/article/where-uscs-opponents-ranked-in-the-fpi-college-football-2021-season-167882545/

2022 preseason -> https://www.deseret.com/2022/7/7/23199033/what-the-updated-espn-football-power-index-predicts-for-utah-byu-and-utah-state-in-2022-fpi/

2023 preseason -> https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=30860642