Notable Changes:

• + Suamataia upgraded from “Safe; potential starter” to “clear starter”
• + Michael Davis on verge of moving up to “clear starter” as Forbes (his competition for CB2 role) continues to play terribly
• - Khyiris Tonga drops from “likely to survive” to “bubble”
• + Zach Wilson moves from “likely to be cut” to “bubble”
• + Jaren Hall moved from “likely to be cut” to “bubble”

• + Dalton Kincaid moved from “Safe; potential starter” to “clear starter”
• - Tim Patrick drops from “Safe; contributor” to “Likely to survive” (due to Vele playing VERY well in preseason)
• + Devaughn Vele moves up from “Bubble” to “Likely to Survive”
• - Sataoa Laumea drops from “Likely to Survive” to “Bubble”

 

BYU

Clear Starters (3)

• Fred Warner (LB, San Francisco): among the top LB in the NFL - quite likely THE top LB
• Puka Nacua (WR, LA Rams): After a record-setting rookie sensation of a season, I think it's safe to say he's in this group
• Kingsley Suamataia (OT, Kansas City):  The plan was for Suamataia and Wanya Morris to compete for the LT job with Jawaan Taylor is the big-money RT signing. Between a solid preseason for Suamataia and a lingering knee injury for Morris, this competition is effectively over

 

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (6)
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

• Kyle Van Noy (OLB, Baltimore): Kyle Van Noy continues to be ageless, coming back to Baltimore after one of his best seasons.  Long term, the Ravens are absolutely planning for a future after him. Ojabo is the highly drafted backup that has struggled with injuries and they drafted Adisa Isaac as well.  When the end inevitably comes for Van Noy, they've prepared to replace him... but he just keeps playing at a high level so there's no reason to replace him at this point. That said, his snap count has dropped precipitously and he's more of a rotational player at this point, more than a clear starter
• Michael Davis (CB, Washington): After years of inconsistency with the Chargers (sometimes a top CB in the league, sometimes being benched), Davis had to sign a 1 year, $3.2M deal with Washington.  That contract doesn't call him a clear starter...but the state of Washington's depth chart makes it hard to see who will challenge him.  St Juste is starting on one side, Sainristil is the nickel back.... and the last outside corner spot is open. The team wants highly-drafted disappointment Emmanuel Forbes to take the job, but Davis is the option of Forbes continues to be terrible. UPDATE: Forbes has, unsurprisingly, continued to be terrible. Between Forbes’ poor performance and Dan Quinn’s preference for larger corners, Davis is on the verge of moving up a tier here
• Tyler Allgeier (RB, Atlanta): After a great rookie year (1000+ yard at 4.9 yards per carry) he regressed badly as a sophomore (680 yards at 3.7 yards per carry).  He'll need a bounceback year to stay in the long-term plans, but should get the opportunity.  Bijan Robinson is obviously still the starter, but there's limited competition for the RB2 role - the Falcons drafted Jase McClellan out of Alabama in the 6th, and he's probably the biggest threat
• Sione Takitaki (LB, New England): Takitaki has spent the last few years opening as a backup for the Browns, coming into the starting lineup when someone ahead of him gets hurt, and then playing very well.  And then getting hurt himself.  Now he's with the Patriots...and most projections have him listed in a similar spot - either the top backup or (more likely) rotating in on passing downs
• Taysom Hill (TE/QB/?, New Orleans): The Saints are in no position financially to cut him and he's proved his worth in a Swiss Army Knife role. It'll be interesting to see where he plays as he's almost guaranteed to be a cap casualty next season. UPDATE: Lots of noise coming out of Saints camp about how he's going to be used more, particularly as a ball-carrier
• Jamaal Williams (RB, New Orleans): UPDATE: I overreacted to a few local sites being very down on him after an abysmal year last year (2.9 ypc). He is likely behind both Kamara and Kendre Miller, and his contract is high for a third-string RB, but so is the dead cap.  He'll survive one more year, but he really needs to show more this next season or next year will be an easy cut. 

 

Safe on roster; primarily depth (2)
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Brady Christensen (OG, Carolina): In three years he's gone from LT to LG to backup LG to now the backup C.  And the team has recently signed free agents for both guard spots and the starting center.  It's not been a good trajectory and his contract expires after this next season...but for now, a cheap guy on a rookie contract with experience at OT, OG, and now C? That's a useful depth piece to keep around
• Blake Freeland (OT, Indianapolis): Had a real chance last year to emerge as a starter, but couldn't pass the two quality tackles (Raimann and Smith) ahead of him.  The Colts drafted a new OT in the 3rd this season (Matt Goncalves), but he's likely to kick inside to OG and be the emergency 4th OT with Freeland holding the swing tackle spot.

 

Likely to survive cuts (0)

• 
  
  

Right on the bubble (4):

• Khyiris Tonga (DT, Arizona): Drafted by the Bears in 2021, released after his rookie season.  Then picked up for the Falcons practice squad in 2022, where the Vikings saw him and signed him a month later.  He played fairly regular snaps in 2022 (36%) before dropping to 20% in 2023 and not being resigned.  Now he's with Arizona for the near-minimum and a backup behind Bilal Nichols.  As a NT he's never going to play a major role, but he's also unique enough to likely stay on the roster for the times he is needed.  UPDATE: ESPN has him being cut, so does CardsWire. Consensus seems to be that he makes it if Arizona elects to carry 7 IDL, but not if they don't
• Chris Brooks (RB, Miami): Chris Brooks was probably the biggest BYU surprise of 2023 cut-downs, making the Dolphins active roster as a UDFA despite a fairly deep RB room.  But competition in the NFL means you have to prove yourself again and again.  Mostert, Achane, and Wright (2024 4th rounder) take up 3 spots.  Most teams only carry 4 RB (although the Dolphins carried a bunch last season) and Brooks, Jeff Wilson, Salvon Ahmed are in competition for that spot (or hoping Miami keeps two of them).  Brooks is probably the favorite of those 3... but there's enough competition that he's in danger. UPDATE: He’s looked good in preseason…but the number crunch is the same regardless of how good he looks. Still he might have moved up, except for his injury in the last preseason game – if you’re a bubble guy, then an injury can really be a major detriment
• Zach Wilson (QB, Denver): He could be the backup (behind either Nix or Stidham) or he could be the QB3 and therefore in danger of being cut depending on roster construction. Ultimately, my guess is he ends up QB2 or QB3 (a team doesn't draft Nix at 12 to sit him and Stidham is the steadier backup), but probably won't be cut either way. If ever a team needed to carry 3 QBs, it's this Broncos team. UPDATE: We've all seen how the preseason has gone. Zach is probably still #3, but fighting for #2. More importantly he’s looked good enough that he probably doesn’t make it through to the practice squad, so there’s increased likelihood that the Broncos roster 3 QBs
• Jaren Hall (QB, Minnesota): JJ McCarthy (starter of the future) and Sam Darnold (bridge QB) take up two spots. Then it's between Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens for the QB3 spot. New rules also allow teams to gameday elevate QB3 from the practice squad infinitely often. UPDATE: Hall hasn’t played well and seemed to be behind Mullens, but McCarthy’s injury bumps him up to QB3. The concern is the signing of Matt Corral. His presence may give the Vikings more willingness to risk losing Hall in trying to get him to the practice squad. He’s currently on the weaker end of the bubble, but on the bubble.

 

Likely cut (4):

• Zayne Anderson (S, Green Bay): He hasn't played a defensive snap in his career, but has been a useful ST player.  Unfortunately, Green Bay went heavy on improving the S position this offseason, which makes it really hard to see him sticking here.  It's a near-given he'll be cut, but his ST experience gives him a shot to catch on elsewhere.  UPDATE: I'm seeing a few places mention Anderson as a tough cut, and ESPN even suggested he might make the cut "largely a special-teamer but had a strong offseason on defense".  Still quite unlikely with everything Green Bay added, but enough to keep him here for now
• Max Tooley (LB, Houston): The Texans have solid starting LB but most linebackers on NFL rosters are there as special teams contributors (a case which may be even more true with the new kickoff rules). Still, as an UDFA, Tooley has an uphill battle. There's room for him to move up these tiers, but he's going to start out here until I hear positives about him.  UPDATE: I've heard some positive things about him, so he moves up.  Still not likely, but no longer a foregone conclusion
• Ryan Rehkow (P, Cincinnati Kansas City): Honestly, I'm surprised Rehkow wasn't drafted ... And even more surprised this is where he ended up. No team is carrying more than one punter and the Chiefs just signed Matt Araiza (aka 'the Punt God').  Araiza was a highly drafted punter in 2022 and then released after a gang rape allegation....that was eventually dismissed as meritless. He recently signed with KC but hasn't played in two years. He's likely the favorite over Rehkow, but Rehkow should land somewhere. Kansas City is just not the most likely spot.  UPDATE: Rehkow was cut. Latched on with the Bengals, where he still seems to be the 2nd choice, but getting a chance to show his leg. The other guy (Robbins) has been hurt, so there’s a great opportunity for Rehkow. That said, reports are that Rehkow hasn’t impressed and if the other punter can’t seize the job, the Bengals may also look elsewhere
• Dax Milne (WR, Las Vegas Washington): Dax has spent every pre-season on the bubble and has made it onto the roster every year.  But his snap counts have also been decreasing, he missed all of last season and was an early cut by the Commanders before catching on with the Raiders  UPDATE: The Raiders don't have a deep WR room so it's not impossible he could sneak on (and certainly wouldn't be unprecedented given that he keep beating expectations)...but right now the most likely case is not making it past cuts.

 

Almost certainly cut (6):

• Samson Nacua (WR, New Orleans): UPDATE: Nacua was signed by the Saints two days ago, so not a lot of predictions with him yet.  And the Saints do have a pretty shallow WR room.  But after a year in the UFL (where he didn't put up great numbers), this is the category he has to start in unless he shows out
• Kedon Slovis (QB, Indianapolis): This is a pretty good landing spot, but similar story as Hall above.  Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco are the clear top two with Sam Ehlinger, Kedon Slovis and Jason Bean fighting for the 3rd spot.  Two of them will be cut, and the winner will...probably also be cut due to new rules on QB3.  The one upsidehere is that Flacco has managed to defy age for a while, but the end is any moment so whoever wins this battle could eventually move up to #2 behind an injury-prone QB.  The Athletic listed him as the most unlikely UDFA to make the roster in Indianapolis UPDATE: Slovis is now pretty clearly in the QB5 spot, behind both Ehlinger and Bean so it's hard to see any way he isn't cut
• Aidan Robbins (RB, Cleveland): Robbins is a UDFA coming into a tough situation.  Chubb (when healthy) has been one of the best backs in the NFL and Jerome Ford has shown himself capable of taking a lead role. Nyheim Hines is one of the best pass-catching RBs and excellent on special teams and as a returner (which takes on more importance this year).  D'Onta Foreman has been a lead back and has a similar skill set as Robbins, being a big power back. And the Browns ALSO traded for Pierre Strong, who also has a similar style as Robbins (and played well in limited snaps each of his first two seasons). There's some serious injury concerns (Chubb is coming off a torn ACL, Hines missed last season after a JetSki accident) and so I see why the Browns wanted to take a flier on someone...but if everyone is recovered, it'll be hard to be in the top 4 here.  UPDATE: Robbins has looked decent enough to likely land a practice squad spot. Which is a win for a UDFA.
• Chris Wilcox (CB, LA Chargers): Drafted by the Bucs in 2021, cut in preseason, signed by the Colts who put him on their practice squad for the year.  Then cut in 2022 preseason by the Colts who again put him on the pratice squad...until they released him off that.  Then on the Cardinals practice squad last year.  Then the Steelers cut him in 2023 and he spent the season on the Chargers practice squad.  Three years without being on a regular-season roster is a pretty good indicator that he's Practice Squad quality and I'm guessing he'll end up there again.  Chargers have invested in CBs though so it may not be there.
• D'Angelo Mandell (CB, Washington): UDFA, basically brought in as a warm body by the Cowboys and then spent last year on the Commander's practice squad. As mentioned in the Michael Davis write-up, the Commanders have some of the worst CB depth in the NFL... but Mandell still isn't being listed anywhere as a possible roster fit.
• Kaleb Hayes (CB, NY Giants): Currently on the roster as a reserve contract...but the sources I've found list him as the #10 CB on the roster... out of 10.  He could surprise and work his way up to a practice squad spot, but active roster is going to be tough (despite the Giants' uncertainty at the position)

 

Already cut or unrostered (7):

• Isaac Rex (TE, Detroit): Signed by the Lions as a UDFA at the start of May, but cut within a few weeks. TBD if he'll get another opportunity elsewhere
• Matt Bushman (TE, Kansas City): After years on the KC practice squad, Matt Bushman has ended his career
• Ty'Son Williams (RB, Arizona): At this point Ty'Son is only listed here because otherwise people will ask about him.  He played a fair amount for the Ravens in 2021.  In 2022 he was cut, signed to the Colts practice squad, cut, signed midseason to the Cardinals practice squad, activated for one game, and then cut. He wasn't on any roster or practice squad in 2023, so it would be shocking at this point if he was in the NFL in 2024.
• James Empey (C/OG, Tennessee): Empey has bounced around practice squads for a few years (though he was activated for a few games by the Dolphins in 2022).  The Titans declined to even sign him to a reserve contract after his latest stint, so it's looking like a real long-shot.  He'll likely be picked up as a camp body at some point, but even practice squad will be tough
• Daniel Sorenson (SS, New Orleans): played surprisingly well in 2022 for the Saints when he got a chance, but as a 34 year old safety with mediocre speed to begin with, he's nearing the end of his opportunities.  2023 saw him make the Saints' practice squad for a few months before being released (apparently at his request?.... Either way, not a good indication he'll be back)
• Eddie Heckard (CB, Denver): Heckard technically can't be cut... because he hasn't even gotten any sort of contract yet.  He has a mini-camp invite, basically just to swing by and see if he can impress.  That's a REALLY tough route to get on a roster.  UPDATE: Didn't get on a roster
• AJ Vongphachanh (LB, NY Jets): Another mini-camp invite...feel free to copy and paste that above blurb on Heckard. UPDATE: Also didn't get on a roster

 

Utah

Clear Starters (9):

• Marcus Williams (FS, Baltimore): One of the better safeties in the NFL, in the 3rd year of a 5 year/$70M deal.  Has missed a few games each of the last two seasons and the cap hits are going up, so safe for this year, but a possible cap hit after next season
• Jaylon Johnson (CB, Chicago): Had a breakout season and is now considered one of the top CBs in the NFL, including just signing a 4 yr/$76M deal
• Garrett Bolles (OT, Denver): After a rough start to his career, Bolles has turned into a solid blind-side protector and the clear starter there for the Broncos
• Julian Blackmon (S, Indianapolis): The clear starter for the Colts, they thought highly enough of him to bring him back on a $3.7M deal... but not highly enough to give him a multi-year deal.  He's the clear starter...but needs to show well to keep that role in future seasons
• Matt Gay (K, Indianapolis): Considered one of the better kickers in the league at this point
• Mitch Wishnowsky (P, San Francisco): He's a punter.  Pretty good at what he does
• Devin Lloyd (LB, Jacksonville): After disappointing at the end of his rookie year, he established himself as an every-down LB in his sophomore year, playing 97% of the snaps
• Clark Phillips III (CB, Atlanta): Phillips was initially seen as a nickel corner due to his size, but took over the starting boundary corner job as a rookie.  There's not been a lot added there, so he's still the starter
• Dalton Kincaid (TE, Buffalo): Lots of hype about him as a pass-catching threat for Josh Allen, but for now he's sharing the role with (or even behind) Dawson Knox. Looked good as a rookie, but still sharing snaps. It's a near inevitability he moves up a tier, but might not be this season. UPDATE: Moving Kincaid up a tier. His snap counts last year had him down, but there’s no question he’s the Bills TE1 this season, and it was just becoming ludicrous to keep him down a tier.

 

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (4):

most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

• Cole Bishop (S, Buffalo): The Bills recently moved on from both their starting safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.  Projections generally have Taylor Rapp starting at one spot and then either Bishop or Mario Edwards at the other.  It's likely Bishop eventually takes the starting role, but it may not be by the start of the season.  UPDATE: He's out with a shoulder injury, doesn't change long-term status, but obviously makes it less likely he unseats a starter early
• Cody Barton (LB, Denver): After many good years in Seattle, he was just OK last year in Washington DC.  But he found a spot with the Broncos as the 2nd ILB in a 3-4 base defense so should get plenty of opportunity UPDATE: There's a chance he could be challenged by Jonas Griffith, so is dropping down a tier for now.
• Zack Moss (RB, Denver): After a disappointing start in Buffalo, Moss found success replacing an injured Jonathon Taylor in Indy last year.  That was enough to get him a new contract with the Broncos as the presumed lead back UPDATE: Chase Brown is getting a surprising number of snaps as the RB1.  Moss will definitely still be heavily involved, but this may be more a committee
• Jonah Elliss (EDGE, Denver): There's a lot of edge rushers (OLB in the Broncos defense) and Elliss doesn't necessarily stand out from the pack, so likely won't open the season as the starter.  But the team just invested a 3rd round pick in him, so it's a good bet that he'll be largely involved in the rotation.  UPDATE: Has looked very good in preseason. Still a crowded room ahead of him, so snaps won’t make him a starter, but good signs for the long-term

 

Safe on roster; primarily depth (2):
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Sione Vaki (RB/S, Detroit): If he's an RB, he's the RB3 at best.  There's more opportunity at safety, but that doesn't seem to be where they drafted him.  Bottom line, he's probably not playing unless there's some injuries...but as a 4th rounder, he's also basically a roster lock as a rookie. UPDATE: He is also developing a reputation as a special teams ace, which is a great way to have a long career. His preseason play has also been notably good...but there's still the logjam in front of him
• Nephi Sewell (LB, New Orleans - IR/PUP): He's made the roster and contributed each of the past few seasons, but would still be on the 'likely to survive' tier....except that he's hurt.  That means it's much more likely he makes the initial 53 so they can place him on IR or PUP and then use that spot for someone else.  Once he comes back, he's probably going to have a depth/ST role, but it's no guarantee

 

Likely to survive cuts (4):

• Tim Patrick (WR, Denver): The Broncos liked him a lot a few years back... but he then missed two consecutive seasons due to injury and I assumed he was done. But most projections now have him as the WR3 or WR4 in Denver. He has the potential to move up (if the Courtland Sutton trade rumors come to fruition or if Marvin Mims continues to be terrible)... but also the potential to move down(if 4th rounder Troy Franklin steps up quickly). UPDATE: Patrick has looked really good in camp...but is still in danger of dropping a tier due to Vele also looking very good. Patrick has been running with the starters and looking good though, so should be safe
• Devaughn Vele (WR, Denver): As a drafted player (even in the 7th), odds are in his favor to make it. But he's also considered a good physical prospect with some rawness ... so practice squad is also a real possibility and I've already seen some noise about that being a potential fit. UPDATE: I've seen him make the roster a few spots, but most have him as heading to the practice squad. Right now he goes on the bubble...but that's generous and he's on the verge of 'likely to be cut'. Followup: He's looking good in camp and might be pushing Tim Patrick. At least one will make it and there’s a real chance both do, but Vele is nearly guaranteed at this point as one of the best preseason performers
• Leki Fotu (DT, NY Jets): See the BYU writeup on Khyiris Tonga.  Fotu has more experience and has been cut fewer times, but the bottom line is still basically the same or maybe a bit more favorable for Fotu.  As a NT he's never going to play a major role, but he's also unique enough to likely stay on the roster for the times he is needed. Big difference is he doesn't have a Bilal Nichols ahead of him
• Britain Covey (WR/RS, Philadelphia): Covey opened up each of the past two seasons on the practice squad before eventually joining the active roster.  And in 2023 he showed himself as one of the best punt returners in the league, which should help him.  But the Eagles also drafted Cooper DeJean who is an excellent return man.  And some other WR.  If Covey is cut, he's likely shown enough as a returner to get a job elsewhere or at least end up on the practice squad.  But I'd lean slightly towards him not making it this year. UPDATE: The news on Covey has been nothing short of laudatory.  He's participating as a WR (even taking WR3 snaps) and is clearly the top returner.  He's now likley to survive and trending upward - this tier might even be low

 

Right on the bubble (2):

• Sataoa Laumea (OG, Seattle): It's a bit shocking to have a drafted player here...but Seattle drafted an OG in the 3rd, two more (Laumea included) in the 6th, signed another as a UDFA and added a few in free agency. That shows how much work they felt they needed there... but also the level of competition. For now, the draft capital means Laumea is more likely to make it than not....but it's a precarious situation. His versatility should help. UPDATE: Drop to bubble has less to do with what I’m hearing and more because draft capital is starting to be less important in my calculations. He’s a true bubble case
• Mohamoud Diabate (LB, Cleveland): Diabate was a UDFA last season and one of the biggest surprises to make a roster, but played very well in preseason. He's probably more likely than not to make it again this year, but the new coach may not roster as many LBers, so he has to prove himself again. UPDATE: Some projections are now saying he’s locked in…and others still have him as the first one off. He’s more likely than not, but still in bubble category

 

Likely cut (2):

• Braeden Daniels (OG/OT, Washington): A 4th rounder in 2023, Daniels missed his rookie season with a torn pec. Most early projections I saw had him making it, but most also pointed out that he's a bit of an unknown after not playing.  UPDATE: There's just very little noise suggesting he'll make it.  It's not an impossibility and his versatility helps...but he's more likely to be cut than not 
• Cole Fotheringham (TE, Las Vegas): Spent 2022 and most of 2023 on Raiders' practice squad, but was active for a few weeks. Obviously Bowers and Michael Mayer are locks, so there's not a lot of opportunity for him, especially wiht Harrison Bryant also coming in as a free agent.  As a general rule though, I'm not going to put a guy who played last season in the 'Almost certainly cut' grouping - at least not yet.  Plus Fotheringham is a good blocker, which isn't the strong suit for either Bowers or Mayer.  If the team carries 4, he's probably in... but that seems unlikely. UPDATE: He is likely competing with Harrison Bryant and John Samuel Shenker for one spot...and Bryant is way ahead.  Again, he's on the verge of dropping a tier.

Almost certainly cut (9):

• Keaton Bills (OG, Buffalo): Brought in as a UDFA, the Bills already have two solid starting guards and a guy who likely brings OG/C flexibility as a backup.  Given that they'll want two backup OTs, that leaves one spot for Keaton Bills, Alec Anderson (2022 UDFA) and Travis Clayton (2024 7th round pick).  Given that Anderson has been on the roster before and that Clayton was drafted ahead of Bills, it's likely Keaton has an uphill battle for that last spot. Still, the Athletic picked him out as the UDFA with the best chance to make the Bills' roster, so there's a chance here.  UPDATE: Simply haven't seen enough to keep him in the above tier
• Miles Battle (CB, Kansas City): Signed after the first wave of UDFA and competing with 2 other UDFA cornerbacks, my inclination is to put him in "almost certainly cut", but I found at least one local site which spotlighted him as one of the UDFAs most likely to make the roster...so I'll leave him here for now  UPDATE: It's been a while and while one site still lists him as a player to watch, he likely hasn't shown enough to be higher.  He has a chance to move up in preseason and training camp, but for now, this is where he has to be
• Jackson Barton (OT, Arizona): Spent 2022 bouncing between the Raiders' active roster and practice squad, then 2023 on the Cardinals practice squad.  He's spent enough time on active rosters that it wouldn't be a shock for him to make it, but the practice squad is definitely more likely UPDATE: He had been up a tier based on respect for his past time on active rosters, but there's just no discussion of him even being close to the roster, so he drops down here now
• Tyler Huntley (QB, Cleveland): At one point there was some hype about Huntley as an underrated asset.  That's no longer the case.  The Browns have a clear top 2 at the position (Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston) and then Huntley and DTR are competing for QB3 and QB4.  DTR is probably the favorite for #3 (and younger so a better fit for the pratice squad), but I'd be shocked if either of them were on the 53 to open the season.  Hard to see any path to Huntley making the roster UPDATE: DTR has pretty much locked up the QB3 role, so Huntley has no path
• Bradlee Anae (EDGE, Atlanta): Anae played out his initial contract with the Jets...but mostly because he was injured in 2023 and didn't count as taking a roster spot. He wasn't on a roster at the time of the draft, but since was signed by the Falcons.
• John Penisini (DT, New Orleans): Penisini medically retired after 2022, then tried to come back in 2023 only to be waived due to a failed physical. There's enough talent/physicality there that he was signed by the Saints to their practice squad and an off-season reserve contract...but he might be the guy I'd be more shocked to see on an active roster than any player on these lists.
• Thomas Yassmin (TE, Denver): Undrafted and signed as a UDFA. He also has the benefit of not taking up a normal roster spot (NFL allows an extra spot for International Pathways Players).  He was already drafted by a CFL team and highly likely he ends up there, but no reason for the Broncos to cut him as long as he fits into that International Pathways exemption.  After that point though, he'll be very likely to be cut, but is a lock for the practice squad (since teams get an international exemption there as well)
• Marquise Blair (S, Seattle Philadelphia): Was a starter in 2020 before tearing his ACL that year.  Had another knee injury in 2021, then spent 2022 bouncing between practice squads.  Was signed by Eagles spring 2023 before being released due to injury. They then resigned him in Spring 2024...and then re-released him due to non-football injury in April 2024.  Too many injuries have taken their toll and it seems he's done. UPDATE: A bit surprised, but he's getting another chance in Seattle, which is where he was at his best. Hard to see him making the cut, but at least getting a shot to show he's the athlete he was - or close enough
• Terrell Burgess (S, Buffalo Washington): Burgess was cut by the Commanders in 2023, signed to the practice squad...but then later activated and spent most of the season on the active roster.  He has potential to be picked up by someone but will be competing for a roster spot at best.  UPDATE: And he was picked up by the Bills as they've been hit by injury (see the blurb on Cole Bishop above).  Still unlikely to make it through, but at least has a chance to show what he can do now.

 

Already cut or unrostered (3):
These are generally players who were rostered or played last year but are currently not under contract with any team.  Most of them won't end up catching on, but occasionally they're worth keeping an eye on

• Eric Rowe (S/CB, Pittsburgh): Rowe has had a long career, but it's clearly coming to an end.  He's been on practice squads each of the last few seasons...and in each season he's been activated and played fairly well.  As a vet, I wouldn't be shocked to see him repeat the same process again, but it's an inevitability that at some point he'll stop getting those chances.
• Javelin Guidry (CB, NY Jets): Guidry has bounced around from team to team, mostly on practice squads.  He's incredibly fast (an official 4.29 40), and teams keep bringing him in for a look. Had a very strong 2023 preseason and was making a case...but then got hurt and waived with an injury settlment.  For a guy who relies on athleticism, he may be out of chances.
• Chase Hansen (LB, New Orleans): Was on the Saints active roster for 4 seasons before suffering a season-long injury for 2023 and not playing.  Nobody has picked him up for 2024 and it's not very likely he will, but worth keeping an eye on, as hecould be a veteran option for some team 

 

 

Utah State

 

Clear Starters (2):

• Bobby Wagner (LB, Washington): Bobby Wagner may not be what he once was, but continues to be a quality starter
• Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay): Has turned into one of the more exciting young QBs in the NFL and just signed a record QB deal

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (1):
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

• Deven Thompkins (WR/RS, Tampa Bay): He's the #4 WR, and played about a quarter of the offensive snaps each of the past two years.  He's also the primary KR.  Definitely not a starter, but will see the field and contribute

 

Safe on roster; primarily depth (1):
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Patrick Scales (LS, Chicago): Long-snapper means he's safe, but without a huge role

 

Likely to survive cuts (1):

• Jalen Davis (CB, Cincinnati): depth option at CB for the Bengals last year, will likely do the same this season.  Plays about 3 or 4 defensive snaps per game, but is listed as CB 7 or 8 in most cases.  UPDATE: DJ Ivey may start out on the PUP which will clear a spot for him.  If not for that, he'd be firmly on the bubble

 

Right on the bubble (0):

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Likely cut (0): 

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Almost certainly cut (0):  

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Already cut or unrostered (3):
These are generally players who were rostered or played last year but are currently not under contract with any team.  Most of them won't end up catching on, but occasionally they're worth keeping an eye on

• Derek Wright (WR, Carolina): Spent 2022 and 2023 on the Panthers' practice squad, has a shot to make a practice squad again, but not currently under contract
• Dallin Leavitt (S, Denver): Had a large ST role for a few years in Green Bay before being cut.  Spent last year on the Broncos practice squad
• Tyler Larsen (C/OG, Washington): A long-time Ron Rivera favorite, he's been cut and resigned by the Commanders repeatedly and even started games at center last year...before going on IR for a third consecutive season due to knee injuries. Not impossible someone takes a shot on him later when they need depth, but not someone a team can rely on

 

Weber St + ^Southern Utah + #Utah Tech

Clear Starters (3):

• Braxton Jones^ (OT, Chicago): starting LT for the Bears
• Taron Johnson (CB, Buffalo): one of the top 3 CBs on the roster, so I'm considering that a starter. Probably the nickleback role
• Rashid Shaheed (WR/RS, New Orleans): Huge success story.  2022 he was listed as certain to be cut...and was.  But then he played on the practice squad, then on the active roster and did well. 2023 he came in as a probable starter...and left as a pro bowl returned and with 700+ receiving yards.  He's now one of the better receiving threats for the Saints

 

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (0):
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

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Safe on roster; primarily depth (1):
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Miles Killebrew^ (S, Pittsburgh): He's safety #5 for the Steelers, but a bit of a special teams ace (including making the Pro Bowl for it last season), so he's pretty safe

 

Likely to survive cuts (1):

• Sua Opeta (OG, Tampa Bay): after years as a depth option in Philadeplphia, Opeta is now with the Bucs in a similar role

 

Right on the bubble (0):

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Likely cut (1): 

• Jonah Williams (DE, Minnesota): Was a surprise a few years back, making the Rams active roster and then actually ended up playing a fair amount.  Now with the Vikings, they've signed players to start over him.  Given his age and the projections I'm seeing, he looks more likely to be cut than not, but may have a chance to catch on elsewhere or to go to the practice squad.

 

Almost certainly cut (1):  

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• Isaiah Wooden^ (WR, Atlanta): Undersized and a UDFA, but Atlanta has needs at WR and the Athletic picked him as the UDFA most likely to make the cut. UPDATE: Early recognition from the Athletic isn't enough with a lack of performance in preseason

 

Already cut (0):

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