Feb 17, 2024
5:50:16pm
5:50:16pm
Using SP+ to predict win probabilities for each game
Historically, SP+ has been useful for getting win probability percentage in each game (formula below)
Given that, here's our win probabilities (by SP+) against each team on the schedule
- vs Southern Illinois: 88.4% (could be higher, SP+ doesn't have FCS)
- @ SMU: 19.5%
- @Wyoming: 51.6%
- vs Kansas St 20.3%
- @ Baylor: 46.2%
- vs Arizona: 20.3%
- vs Oklahoma St: 22.6%
- @ UCF 40.5%
- @ Utah 10.7%
- vs Kansas 32.5%
- @ Arizona St 53.0%
- vs Houston 62.5%
So that means we are favored against 4 teams.... but the best prediction of number of wins (by SP+) is 4.73...meaning over 4.5, but that seems like the most reasonable half-integer number to go with, especially depending on the juice on that over/under.
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- krindorr
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- Oct 5, 2020
- Last login
- Sep 7, 2024
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Time
Feb 16, 8:00am
Feb 16, 8:01am
Feb 16, 8:02am
Feb 16, 8:04am
Ignoring the BYU angle, I wonder if the FanDuel line differs from other Vegas lines due to FanDuel bettors being so
Feb 16, 8:59am
I'd imagine they're not much different - gamblers are smart and would take advantage of major differences
Feb 17, 5:07am
They set the line on how they think the public will bet. They want even money to go down on both sides which is why
Feb 17, 11:56am
Feb 17, 4:56pm
Nice job! Yes, it's not going to be a cake walk by any means but it won't be the 11th toughest schedule either (again by
Feb 17, 5:06pm
Feb 17, 5:50pm
Feb 17, 6:12pm
I think that's very fair - right now it's the most objective thing that's out so best we have...but still mostly a guess
Feb 17, 6:50pm
Feb 17, 6:58pm