The QB “Click Point”

20 quarterbacks QBs at BYU since 1980 started for at least 1 full year (19 were at least two year starters).

For 15 of these QBs (75%), there is a point in their career development where the D1 game finally “clicked”. If you look at their game log, there is an identifiable inflection point at which their average passing efficiency bumped up above 150. After this “QB Click Point”, they became legitimately good or even great passers.

Five of the 20 QBs had no clear development arc and consequently don’t had an identifiable Click Point: Tanner Mangum, Matt Berry, Jake Heaps, Sean Covey, Taysom Hill

For the 15 Click Point QBs, here are some interesting stats:
Average number of games played* until reaching the QB Click Point: 10.1
Range 1-21 games to click point**
Outliers low: Riley Nelson 1, Robbie Bosco 2.
Outliers high: Zach Wilson 17, John Beck 18, Marc Wilson 21.
Average year in program at Click Point: 3
Outliers low: Sarkisian (1st year, but was the only JC transfer), Detmer 2nd year
Outliers high: Stewart, M. Wilson, Doman (Happened in their 4th year in program )

For 12 of the 15, this development milestone was durable - their pass efficiency stayed high after the QB Click Point. Three QBs had a junior year Click Point and then regressed in their senior year: Nelson, Walsh, Feterick.

Observations: 75% of BYU’s starting QBs in the modern era had a point in their career development where the D1 game finally “clicked” for them and they became very good passers. Generally, it takes at least 3 years in the program and at least 10 games played with significant minutes until a BYU QB goes from mediocre to great, but once the game clicks, very few regress.

I suspect that the same trend likely holds around the country. In the context of current transfer portal trends, this means that most schools are investing years of effort developing players who just fly the coop when they’ve hit their “Click Point”.

What isn’t clear is whether most of the senior season transfer portal acquisitions who have done their “pre-click-point time” in another program can still “click” when they transfer to a new program and system. The few who can do this successfully probably represent the gifted elite and will be always be too expensive. On the other hand, teams should be wary of transfer portal players who have put in 3 years and played in 10 games and still haven’t clicked, or have regressed.

Conclusion: For all but the richest schools, a “train and retain” strategy of player development and aggressive retention efforts will likely pay greater dividends than a “drop and re-shop” approach of constantly trying to replace attrition through the portal.



*Games with meaningful playing time with at least 10 passing attempts and not in blowout garbage time.

**Individual Player Data
(Games to Click Point; year in the program when click point occurs)

John Beck: 18 games, 3rd yr (Junior)

Jaren Hall: 9 games, 3 yr (Jr)

Max Hall: 13 games 3 yr (Jr)

Sarkisian: 7 games, 1st yr (Jr, JC transfer)

Detmer: 9 games, 2 yr (Sophomore)

McMahon: 10 games, 3yr (Jr)

Stewart: 6 games, 4th yr (Senior)

Bosco: 2 games, 3 yr (Jr)

Feterick: peak efficiency games 12-24, 3yr (Jr), then regression Senior yr

Walsh: peak efficiency games 10-12 and 19-26 in 3yr (Jr),