HOW BENDY IS THE DEFENSE?

The defense gives the offense:
- 71.9 yard fields (#93) BYU
- 69.0 yard fields (#25) for comp
- 67.0 yard fields (#10) for comp

The offense gives the defense:
- 73.0 yard fields (#21) BYU

So looks like we're bending for 5 or 6 yards a drive. That is, if the defense were in the same class as the offense for field position. But don't forget how special teams affects it:
- BYU is #5 in kickoffs and #117 in kickoff returns
- BYU is #35 in punts and #19 in punt returns

So really, looks like we have less than 5 or 6 years of bend built into the defense. Typical bend-don't break defense, no? But the question now is how much does it break? That's what separates good and bad bend-don't-break defenses.



HOW BREAKY IS THE DEFENSE?

How often the defense gives up points:
- 1.26 points per drive (#7)
- 0.66 DFEI (#14) [This stat adjusts the defense points allowed per drive to be against an average opponent. We drop because of our schedule.]

That's top 15 in not breaking! So the tradeoff looks like we bend for 5 yards (or less) to be a top 15 defense. I mean, !!!



POTENTIAL RESPONSES

What about time of possession?
TOP is misunderstood. I mean, you kick the ball off to the other team at the end of drives, right? TOP can affect i) extra possessions at the ends of halves, ii) the variance in a game by having lots of possessions on both sides, or a low number of possessions on both sides (good for underdogs looking to get lucky), iii) rhythm and fatigue. But TOP is minor compared to field position and scores per drive. Of course, as a fan who likes to see Zach Wilson's headband, I care about TOP. But mostly because of entertainment value.

What about the eye test?
I think there can be real criticisms using the eye test. My eyes tell me that the defense can clearly improve (and I expect Batty and Ah You to make a big difference there soon enough). But when my eyes tell me that our defense gives up long fields, or that it gives up points... well, I don't trust my eyes on that. Those are claims that can be measured, and that have been measured (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overalldef/2020). So this is not really an eye test thing, its a data thing. It was very surprising to see the data as a cougarboard reader. But there it is.

Bad opponents?
The DFEI stat adjusts for opponent to predict against an average opponent. But I do think our defense wouldn't adjust as well as these numbers say against top opponents. In fact, I'd be tempted to say the same thing about our offense. But for now, coaches should use the most effective schemes against their actual opponent each week, right? We'll see how we set up for 7 P5s next year. But I'll wait until then to complain about the adjustment.



CONCLUSION

- We bend for about 5 yards per drive.
- We break like a top 15 defense (rarely).

After a look at those numbers, I think CB should be loving the D almost as much as the O (...I wonder how many thumbs down I just got hahaha), though there are valid criticisms to make about places to improve.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byQIPdHMpjc