Intellectually dishonest because I disagree?

Apr 6, 2020
8:34:26am

a priori Truly Addicted User

You need to come up with a better line. Ad hominem doesn't address my point.

If you're familiar with the concept of fat tails and you also admit the information below, then you know that my point isn't intellectually dishonest.

when the epidemiologists had almost no good info on the actual disease

Your hindsight bias is showing.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Apr 6, 2020 at 8:34:26am

Message modified by a priori on Apr 6, 2020 at 8:35:41am

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a priori

Previous username: Random Walk
Bio page: a priori
Joined: Sep 22, 2007
Last login: Jun 27, 2024
Total posts: 36,988 (1,540 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

UW model has updated numbers. Changes in the right direction.

Joe Banks

4/6/20 7:17am

So in other words they were completely wrong and have adjust more to reality?

ordinary tri guy

4/6/20 7:20am

Social distancing and lots of testing are working better than predicted.

Joe Banks

4/6/20 7:24am

This excuse is so tired. That is not why these models are off.

CSoul

4/6/20 7:31am

Do you live in a normally distributed world?

a priori

4/6/20 7:32am

I'm very familiar with that concept (haven't read those books)

CSoul

4/6/20 7:46am

Intellectually dishonest because I disagree?

a priori

4/6/20 8:34am

Well I clearly know you disagree, that wasn't at argument

CSoul

4/6/20 8:36am

This is called switch tracking.

a priori

4/6/20 8:42am

To model it like a typical viral disease outbreak and to rely on existing

CSoul

4/6/20 8:51am

Lots of hand waving in your post.

a priori

4/6/20 9:00am

Not hindsight bias, I predicted this weeks ago, good try though.

CSoul

4/6/20 9:01am

There were no consequences to your prediction.

a priori

4/6/20 9:12am

I NEVER said do nothing, so I don't even know what you are preaching here

CSoul

4/6/20 9:19am

I'm not preaching anything.

a priori

4/6/20 10:04am

We took extraordinary measures, and they're working. Isn't that good?

ReyOso

4/6/20 8:30am

If Sweden doesn't turn to a lockdown and yet does not suffer

mbs6

4/6/20 9:10am

Heads they win. Tails they win. If deaths were way above models, it proves

Bostonblue

4/6/20 8:53am

With good numbers, everyone can declare they were right. Lol.

Joe Banks

4/6/20 9:03am

Not with bad numbers though.

Bostonblue

4/6/20 9:12am

The issue is the horrible off numbers causes undo panic. Did people in Bama...

ordinary tri guy

4/6/20 9:49am

Amazing how the obvious answer that interventions worked

coolcats

4/6/20 7:36am

Inaccurate models and benefits from social distancing are not mutually exclusive

cougarmeister

4/6/20 8:35am

Better to be safe than sorry. This thing isn't over.

rockyrd

4/6/20 9:38am

It's already way off again and way too high. These models

CSoul

4/6/20 7:24am

How is it that the entire state of NY only has 718 ICU beds?

deejo

4/6/20 7:31am

I've seen ~3000 listed in most places.

mokelembembe

4/6/20 7:35am

It must be the number of unoccupied beds,

Everyman

4/6/20 7:41am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/6/20 7:39am

That twitter post is looking at the older model prior to them updating it this

jreid191

4/6/20 8:14am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/6/20 9:14am

But it hopefully will mean the newer model will be more accurate/reliable going

jreid191

4/6/20 9:17am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/6/20 9:24am

Utah's numbers were originally 619, then modified to 580, until this change

Jasbo

4/6/20 8:38am

There was a posted article about risk management that is spot on. Western

Benfica1

4/6/20 10:29am

Strange how all of the models seem to be off in the same direction

cougarnw

4/6/20 10:59am

And by a lot. I could see being 10-15% each way, but 300% + off.

Benfica1

4/6/20 11:30am

It's telling about the motives

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