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Apr 6, 2020
8:30
:01
am
ReyOso
Intervention Needed
We took extraordinary measures, and they're working. Isn't that good?
You can see that they're working by looking at flu data, too, where cases fell off a cliff.
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ReyOso
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ReiUrso
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ReyOso
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Jan 30, 2022
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Messages
Author
Time
UW model has updated numbers. Changes in the right direction.
Joe Banks
4/6/20 7:17am
So in other words they were completely wrong and have adjust more to reality?
ordinary tri guy
4/6/20 7:20am
Social distancing and lots of testing are working better than predicted.
Joe Banks
4/6/20 7:24am
This excuse is so tired. That is not why these models are off.
CSoul
4/6/20 7:31am
Do you live in a normally distributed world?
a priori
4/6/20 7:32am
I'm very familiar with that concept (haven't read those books)
CSoul
4/6/20 7:46am
Intellectually dishonest because I disagree?
a priori
4/6/20 8:34am
Well I clearly know you disagree, that wasn't at argument
CSoul
4/6/20 8:36am
This is called switch tracking.
a priori
4/6/20 8:42am
To model it like a typical viral disease outbreak and to rely on existing
CSoul
4/6/20 8:51am
Lots of hand waving in your post.
a priori
4/6/20 9:00am
Not hindsight bias, I predicted this weeks ago, good try though.
CSoul
4/6/20 9:01am
There were no consequences to your prediction.
a priori
4/6/20 9:12am
I NEVER said do nothing, so I don't even know what you are preaching here
CSoul
4/6/20 9:19am
I'm not preaching anything.
a priori
4/6/20 10:04am
We took extraordinary measures, and they're working. Isn't that good?
ReyOso
4/6/20 8:30am
If Sweden doesn't turn to a lockdown and yet does not suffer
mbs6
4/6/20 9:10am
Heads they win. Tails they win. If deaths were way above models, it proves
Bostonblue
4/6/20 8:53am
With good numbers, everyone can declare they were right. Lol.
Joe Banks
4/6/20 9:03am
Not with bad numbers though.
Bostonblue
4/6/20 9:12am
The issue is the horrible off numbers causes undo panic. Did people in Bama...
ordinary tri guy
4/6/20 9:49am
Amazing how the obvious answer that interventions worked
coolcats
4/6/20 7:36am
Inaccurate models and benefits from social distancing are not mutually exclusive
cougarmeister
4/6/20 8:35am
Better to be safe than sorry. This thing isn't over.
rockyrd
4/6/20 9:38am
It's already way off again and way too high. These models
CSoul
4/6/20 7:24am
How is it that the entire state of NY only has 718 ICU beds?
deejo
4/6/20 7:31am
I've seen ~3000 listed in most places.
mokelembembe
4/6/20 7:35am
It must be the number of unoccupied beds,
Everyman
4/6/20 7:41am
<< Deleted >>
Abe Froman
4/6/20 7:39am
That twitter post is looking at the older model prior to them updating it this
jreid191
4/6/20 8:14am
<< Deleted >>
Abe Froman
4/6/20 9:14am
But it hopefully will mean the newer model will be more accurate/reliable going
jreid191
4/6/20 9:17am
<< Deleted >>
Abe Froman
4/6/20 9:24am
Utah's numbers were originally 619, then modified to 580, until this change
Jasbo
4/6/20 8:38am
There was a posted article about risk management that is spot on. Western
Benfica1
4/6/20 10:29am
Strange how all of the models seem to be off in the same direction
cougarnw
4/6/20 10:59am
And by a lot. I could see being 10-15% each way, but 300% + off.
Benfica1
4/6/20 11:30am
It's telling about the motives
HighHorse
4/6/20 11:48am
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