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Mar 18, 2020
7:39
:27
pm
South_A
Starter
I've been asked
To reduce my labor by 25% and the season doesnt start for another 3 weeks.
In addition I've been given some pretty astronomical sanitation guidelines that I'd need MORE labor to comply with.
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South_A
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Gunga Galunga
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South_A
Joined
Jun 1, 2007
Last login
Mar 15, 2021
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Messages
Author
Time
“Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting to Coronavirus.”
monteburns
3/18/20 3:49pm
I've been trying to say this.... #SMH
Indy Coug
3/18/20 3:51pm
We've all been trying to say this. Basically since the beginning but for sure since before the shutdowns started.
Pimpin4Paradise
3/18/20 3:52pm
Here's a very key quote in the article
Indy Coug
3/18/20 3:53pm
And this quote, showing how the cause of death is measured is subjective...
bluefish
3/18/20 5:47pm
For statistician he’s guilty of cherry picking his data.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 7:46pm
That’s why he gives such a range of possible mortality rates up to 0.625
ledfoot
3/18/20 10:27pm
It’s not a real sample though. It artificial in many ways.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 11:46pm
No sample is good
bythenumbers
3/19/20 6:17am
Because death is a low frequency event, you need a very large sample size for "statistically credible" data
Indy Coug
3/19/20 8:14am
You do realize
bythenumbers
3/19/20 8:17am
You do realize that I'm an actuary and understand mortality rates and what "statistically credible" means?
Indy Coug
3/19/20 8:28am
I think you are correct in that the data is dirty and incomplete. The problem
StalwartBraveTrue
3/19/20 8:48am
I'm supportive of the status quo
bythenumbers
3/19/20 9:15am
I agree no action is without risk. Which risk is worse?
StalwartBraveTrue
3/19/20 9:28am
Alarmists: Oh yeah, does that guy even have a degree in epidemiology? What's that? He does? Oh...
Pimpin4Paradise
3/18/20 3:52pm
Well, where were these people last week? Why didn’t they provide input
OmahaThunderCoug
3/18/20 3:54pm
Because it's politically expedient to be seen as the most cautious, most "caring"
Indy Coug
3/18/20 3:58pm
<< Deleted >>
Abe Froman
3/18/20 4:04pm
Dr. Anthony Fauci is anything but political. His voice should be trusted 100% on this.
TheLoneCougar
3/18/20 4:07pm
Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?
Crowgar
3/18/20 7:34pm
RE: Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?
TheLoneCougar
3/18/20 7:44pm
High profile people and organizations is exactly what did it.
Y05
3/19/20 3:54am
The change happened in a blink of an eye and they expected that
CSoul
3/18/20 4:01pm
Exactly. And not to mention, all this mayhem started just 1 week ago
Coug Man in Florida
3/18/20 7:00pm
So, coming out against the data that doesn’t exist?
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 7:48pm
Maybe because they wanted actual data first before going alarmist
pegushin
3/18/20 4:03pm
The experts and people in charge at the WHO and CDC have been waiting their
JAGA97
3/18/20 3:54pm
Not all of them.
No touching
3/18/20 4:00pm
Not an expert...
CSoul
3/18/20 4:00pm
Thank you for posting, makes sense.Waiting for resident CB alarmists to chime in
Run-DMT
3/18/20 4:05pm
Why does he rely on Princess cruise when we have lots of data from
Plato
3/18/20 4:06pm
Because it's the only study where we have a population that was all together
CSoul
3/18/20 4:07pm
Truly revolutionary concept
Indy Coug
3/18/20 4:12pm
The type of people that go on a cruise are hardly representative of a country's population, no matter
mik3
3/18/20 4:14pm
The article acknowledges it but at the same time you were able to capture the full population of the ship
Indy Coug
3/18/20 4:16pm
Yep, I read that. Found the professor's critique to be solid and well-informed.
mik3
3/18/20 4:22pm
Yes, not gospel truth AT ALL. Just another data point. BTW, Germany
CSoul
3/18/20 5:06pm
The Princess Cruise is literally the best data we have.
buhlcougar
3/18/20 4:09pm
Control group. All together. All tested. Outcomes known.
RugbyCoug
3/18/20 4:15pm
That's very much not the definition of a control group.
mik3
3/18/20 4:16pm
It's a closed circuit where we were able to test those that that were
Bostonblue
3/18/20 4:44pm
Selection bias and the size of n in this case means it's hard to tell how close any of its estimators are to the real
mik3
3/18/20 4:55pm
South Korea was not testing everyone in their country. There were very likely
Bostonblue
3/18/20 5:09pm
What's your source for SK being "at a 0.1% death rate. Better than seasonal flu"? It's wrong. It's ~1%.
mik3
3/18/20 5:28pm
Yep, depending on the population of elderly it is .5% to 1.5%. I think what was
CSoul
3/18/20 5:31pm
I hope that's the case. If the data backs that up, I'll be extremely happy for things to go back to ~normal.
mik3
3/18/20 5:33pm
Testing doesn’t save people. Compliance does
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:13pm
Not even close. They were isolated and forced to sit in the rooms for 14 days
Coug-Ida
3/18/20 6:24pm
Thank you!! It's about time we start seeing more of these types of articles
Bostonblue
3/18/20 4:10pm
Italy is not doing anyone favors
Qhall
3/18/20 4:47pm
22,000 die per year from the flu in Italy
chazen
3/19/20 1:30am
Interesting article - 0.125% death rate of those infected. That sounds great
BYUfan92
3/18/20 5:02pm
Imperial College Data
jamesallenrocks
3/18/20 5:07pm
Funny to me that CB screams fake news! whenever a legit news agency is cited,
runnincoug
3/18/20 5:16pm
Confirmation bias is ridiculous here. Honestly cannot believe the prevailing
Machiavelli
3/18/20 5:37pm
The source of the link is irrelevant. It was published elsewhere first and they picked up the story.
Indy Coug
3/18/20 5:39pm
But if the reverse happened there would be immediate outcries for why are you
runnincoug
3/18/20 6:19pm
An agency that is extremely biased isn't really legit.
ditch
3/18/20 8:21pm
Daily wire is actually a pretty good source even though they aren’t the source
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:17pm
I read it a lot, actually, probably every day—and yes, they are totally biased.
runnincoug
3/18/20 11:21pm
You’re wrong. I have heard tons of critique on Trump and not just recently
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:24pm
I read/listen everyday...I subscribe to their feed.
runnincoug
3/19/20 7:22am
Here is a Harvard rebuttal
bythenumbers
3/18/20 5:50pm
Even the Rebuttal admits that long term social distancing is not a viable
Bostonblue
3/18/20 6:01pm
Because letting it "run its course" without controlling velocity would lead to disaster, including
mik3
3/18/20 6:05pm
There's an obvious middle road approach that doesn't lead
Bostonblue
3/18/20 6:20pm
It's not clear
bythenumbers
3/18/20 6:25pm
IMO, we will eventually have no choice but to adopt the tailored/moderate
Bostonblue
3/18/20 7:25pm
I agree
bythenumbers
3/18/20 7:44pm
And local by state. A solution in ny likely won’t work in rural America
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:20pm
Here's why
bythenumbers
3/18/20 6:09pm
The author of the rebuttal:
bythenumbers
3/18/20 6:12pm
Stating the low testing numbers is more likely to show
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:19pm
I fear it has already gone too far too fast to be easily reversible. SMH....
BleedCougarBlue2
3/18/20 6:01pm
This has been my fear all along
runningfoo
3/18/20 6:10pm
All I got out of this is a Cougar could beat an Elephant. BYU will beat Alabama!
dadofkhec
3/18/20 7:34pm
So we're supposed to sit around and wait for "reliable data" before we act? Lol
Machiavelli
3/18/20 7:38pm
No we should take a measured approach before we know the data
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:22pm
I've been asked
South_A
3/18/20 7:39pm
He makes the exact same mistake in the opposite direction.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 7:44pm
The daily wire? That's as far as I got.
ditch
3/18/20 8:16pm
No
bythenumbers
3/18/20 8:33pm
I don't think enough is known about how this virus is going to behave to come
Countcougula
3/18/20 8:24pm
Totally agree. There just isn’t enough data to make or oppose inferences.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 8:50pm
Just watched Contagion. This guy reminds me of Jude Law.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/19/20 12:02am
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