Nov 4, 2015
10:09:40am
10:09:40am
There is a way to do this analysis, but you haven't done it.
Sagarin is a joke compared to newer, play-level analysis like FEI and S+P.
And if you look at S+P (or if you like Sagarin you could probably do it with Sagarin) you will see that it is common for the lower ranked team, even the much lower ranked team, to win.
That means that anytime you go 10-2 against even a decent schedule like ours, you have achieved something great.
For example (and I haven't looked it up, I'm not going to do your work for you) suppose we have an 80% historical chance of beating these teams that are well below us in the rankings, and we play 6 of these 80% games. The probability of winning them all is .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 or 26.2%.
Going 10-2 is crushing it in light of those odds.
And if you look at S+P (or if you like Sagarin you could probably do it with Sagarin) you will see that it is common for the lower ranked team, even the much lower ranked team, to win.
That means that anytime you go 10-2 against even a decent schedule like ours, you have achieved something great.
For example (and I haven't looked it up, I'm not going to do your work for you) suppose we have an 80% historical chance of beating these teams that are well below us in the rankings, and we play 6 of these 80% games. The probability of winning them all is .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 or 26.2%.
Going 10-2 is crushing it in light of those odds.
Originally posted on Nov 4, 2015 at 10:09:40am
Message modified by jkccoug on Nov 4, 2015 at 10:10:31am
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