And since Rose/Sugar are paired as semi-final games in the 2 years they are not semi-final games it drastically reduces the available at-large berths.

The Orange is paired with the Cotton and while the Orange is tied to the ACC #1 (and presumably their "top available" team as well) followed by #2 from B1G/SEC or ND that eats into the at large availability.

Let me try to break it out here for best year for a Go5 (or a BYU) to peak to get an at-large. Bare with me as I'm just putting this together as I write this up.... An assumption has to be made that the P5 and the committee will be handicapping all non-P5 teams making it very difficult for them to achieve the at-large playoff options so the following is just to consider making it into the non-semi-final NY6.

2014-15 - Rose/Sugar as Semi-Finals (top 4 at-large "from any conference")
Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five"
Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five"
Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five"
If the Big Ten or SEC champion is available for a non-playoff bowl in a year when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting semifinals, that team will appear in either the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl, but not the Orange Bowl.

Possibility of a B1G or SEC team not making the top 4 (very unlikely an SEC champ doesn't make the playoffs) may take 2 of the remaining 6 slots in either Cotton/Fiesta or Peach and we'll assume the Orange has a "top available" ACC team, etc and not include those 2 slots. This leaves 3-5 at-large after the Go5 selection.

2015–16 - Orange/Cotton (top 4 at-large "from any conference")
Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five"
Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five"

Both the Rose/Sugar will have "top available" from B1G/Pac & SEC/B12 respectively even if their champs are in the semi-finals. This leaves only 3 at-large after the Go5 selection.

2016–17 - Fiesta/Peach (top 4 at-large "from any conference")
Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five"

Both the Rose/Sugar will have "top available" from B1G/Pac & SEC/B12 respectively even if their champs are in the semi-finals. We'll assume the Orange has a "top available" ACC team, etc and not include those 2 slots. This leaves only 1 at-large after the Go5 selection.


So assuming this piecing together of currently available information is correct the best year for BYU to peak out of this first cycle is THIS year. And then every 3rd year after that. In one of those every 3rd year plans if SEC & B1G have their champs in the semi-finals it leaves as many as 5 at-large slots after the Go5 selection. We have to believe that at-large selections out side of P5 will still somehow be limited but the opening for the debate/possibility is much greater in those years for sure.

At any rate I do believe the new plan (vs the old BCS) has more of a door opening for a team like BYU that can schedule up (not saying they have sufficiently done that yet - but they do have a better opportunity than teams tied to weak conferences with 8 forced games) and if they then take care of business could find their way in as an at-large particularly in that once every 3 year window where more slots are available.