Making assumptions about interest rates is playing with fire.

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Mar 30, 2025
12:25:03am

Cougar Junkie Truly Addicted User

Making assumptions about interest rates is playing with fire.

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Cougar Junkie

Bio page: Cougar Junkie
Joined: Oct 10, 2001
Last login: Apr 8, 2025
Total posts: 12,429 (15 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

So, according to FHA and other housing data, single-family mortgage delinquencies are conservatively around 5%...

Brisket Starter

Mar 29, 10:45pm

Listings always increase from winter to spring though. What increase is normal?

Superkid

Mar 29, 10:47pm

That number is YOY. Supply is up dramatically.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:05pm

Ah, ok

Superkid

Mar 29, 11:07pm

This, along with the fact that the big jump usually hits around late April to May. We don't see these numbers in March.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:07pm

I’ve noticed a bunch of houses for sale in my area lately.

Superkid

Mar 29, 11:18pm

Supply has been at near historic lows for years now. Has to start coming up

Cougarclaw

Mar 29, 11:24pm

This is way more than a reversion to the mean for many markets.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:34pm

Would you say that interest rates right now are high or average?

Cougarclaw

Mar 30, 9:38am

Average, maybe even a little lower than average. Id have to look.

rad dawg

Mar 30, 10:01am

While not great news, I don't think we can fairly compare to pre

paulb

Mar 29, 10:47pm

And back then mortgage rates didn't shoot up from 2.7% to 6.8% like they have now. The circumstances are different...

Brisket

Mar 29, 10:59pm

The rate shooting up leads me to believe you'll have lower default rates as no

paulb

Mar 29, 11:02pm

Yet despite not wanting to lose the killer rate, home sales and listings have increased like crazy year over year.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:06pm

I hope so

Zip

Mar 29, 10:48pm

Its not really comparable. I'm sure that figure is not good, but

LifeLongLakerFan

Mar 29, 10:50pm

Well, the early 1980s correction wasn't the same as the early 90s correction which wasn't the same as the correction

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:04pm

That's true, but you are comparing the two. I'm just explaining that

LifeLongLakerFan

Mar 29, 11:35pm

So you're saying we don't have to worry about a correction, potentially a massive one in some markets?

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:42pm

A correction is normal. I expect one. Frankly, I think we need one. It's a norma

LifeLongLakerFan

Mar 30, 12:24am

Won’t be as bad in Utah? Seems that’s likely to be one of the worse locations

ABCoug

Mar 29, 10:52pm

What did we expect when lenders were allowing 40-50% DTI ratios?

rad dawg

Mar 29, 10:55pm

I would say it will be more like a significant correction, although there are some localized areas where we could see a

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:08pm

Yeah Phoenix is starting to look ugly just like it does in down cycles.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:16pm

We are looking to move to the Phoenix area, but not for another 1-2 years.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:21pm

I want to move to Phoenix. That just might help.

Mar 30, 12:39am

There’s a lot of people with $6k/month mortgages right now just trying to make ends meet until they can do the refinance

RdF3

Mar 29, 11:12pm

Yeah, unfortunately that might be a while.

Brisket

Mar 29, 11:19pm

1) Who told them this? 2) Why did they believe it?

Mar 30, 12:29am

Realtors and lenders.

RdF3

Mar 30, 8:38am

A correction is needed.

Mar 29, 11:22pm

Here are the numbers for all mortgages, methinks you should relax a little,

bulletproof

Mar 29, 11:26pm

Conventional loans are doing fine but something is happening w/VA and FHA loans

rcbyufan

Mar 30, 9:22am

Link? Where is your data?

Mar 29, 11:28pm

I have several friends who bought new build homes in Utah in the last few years;

KayakCoug

Mar 29, 11:40pm

I have 2 friends that just sold homes due to their buy downs expiring this year.

rad dawg

Mar 29, 11:50pm

That's tough. At least they were able to sell. Imagine being underwater if

KayakCoug

Mar 29, 11:56pm

Making assumptions about interest rates is playing with fire.

Mar 30, 12:25am

Single family construction starts are still too low, only grew about 1%

1984coug

Mar 30, 8:08am

The market correction is happening. I saw my house triple in estimates value in the last 5 -10 years. That’s insane. I

BYU Grounds

Mar 30, 8:34am

Home prices in Utah definitely need to adjust to current rates and incomes.

Spindash

Mar 30, 10:55am

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