TL;DR:
12-0 BYU is in the CCG.
11-1 BYU is in the CCG if KSU has another loss or if ISU loses 2 and Colorado loses 1 more.
10-2 BYU is in the CCG over 60% of the time, but in the tiebreakers analyzed below, 10-2 BYU is not very likely to get in.

Based on win probabilities from the Massey Ratings website, I simulated the season 10,000 times in each of 169 different scenarios that have interesting ties between BYU, ISU, KSU, and Colorado.

Here are BYU's probabilities of reaching the CCG in each scenario. Each row is a season result for BYU ("Overall" means any result) and each column is a season result for ISU, KSU, and Colorado.

Here are the probabilities that each of the above scenarios will happen:


And here are BYU's overall CCG probabilities based on the results of this week's games. The main game that affects our CCG odds is KSU @ Houston, so Go Coogs!


Here are the probabilities of other teams getting into the CCG during the same scenarios, if you're interested:
Spoiler