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Oct 24, 2024
12:58
:25
pm
Incentivize
All-American
Should each column add to 100%?
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Incentivize
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cvore
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Incentivize
Joined
Dec 18, 2001
Last login
Oct 24, 2024
Total posts
7,163 (29 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Big 12 Football Final Standings Analysis
Skeeziks
All-American
5:48am
there is a 6% chance Utah will be ranked higher than byu at end of season.
conetah
6:08am
How do you get that?
durandal
6:13am
Actually my math is bad. I change my answer to .08% (edited)
conetah
6:27am
Still off by a factor of 10 but you get partial credit for showing your work
Hiccupless
6:35am
Fixed it professor ha. Good catch
conetah
6:46am
That is not quite correct since Utah finishing in 4th likely means beating BYU
jreid191
9:32am
I think you’re reading it wrong. Need to multiply probabilities, not add them.
Hiccupless
6:20am
Yup, I was. I redid it
conetah
6:27am
I looked at it and 99.2% of the time BYU better; 0.2% Utah better and tie 0.6%
Skeeziks
6:34am
Thanks. Was just going off your rounded numbers above. Cool simulation.
Hiccupless
6:37am
Uhhh, I really like, and really don't like 99.2% odds, then.
WaffleCheese
7:00am
Bamacoug worthy stuff. Love it.
Pro Logic
6:45am
This is cool, although the win probability of beating OSU was less than 1% on
ForzaPuma
6:57am
Good stuff
dodgersjazzcougs
7:11am
One in five chance that we miss the CCG outright. We need to remember that.
Greg4BYU
7:43am
Interesting to me that beating UCF has a higher probability than beating Utah
Flyski
7:48am
I'm no math guy, but how can BYU and ISU both have above a 50% chance of
Cougs'16
8:44am
No - if they tie for first then they both show up in the 1 column. Don't try to do tie breakers here.
Skeeziks
8:46am
Ah right. Thanks
Cougs'16
8:50am
Great insight. Would love to see this updated each week.
Lanterne Rouge
9:03am
So 82% chance we make the Big 12 CCG. That's all that matters.
Six Foot Seven
10:26am
No - 82% that we are in 1st or 2nd place. 31% of the time we'd be tied and need to win tiebreaker to get to CCG.
Skeeziks
10:38am
Here's what I think of probabilities:
BYUDM93
10:34am
Love it, please post this each week
Hill4Heisman
11:00am
Why does it give a combined 159% chance a team could finish first, but only a 50% chance for a last place finish?
unctoothman
11:18am
You can tie for first but can’t tie for last.
Skeeziks
11:22am
All the data leaves out the outcome of the CCG, right?
Brandoblueblood
12:22pm
ok.. what do we really want to happen to maximize reaching CCG, assuming we don't run the table. KSU over ISU? or do we
timpjynx
12:41pm
So at minimum at 52% chance of making the conference championship game?
NacoCoug
12:50pm
Should each column add to 100%?
Incentivize
12:58pm
No. Because tiebreakers aren't applied in this model so multiple teams can be 1
Greg4BYU
1:08pm
This is the type of analysis that makes me so glad to be on CB. Great stuff. Looking forward to updates as they happen.
Yllage Vidiot
1:27pm
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