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Oct 21, 2024
4:06
:05
am
deja-blu
All-American
RE: Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5
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deja-blu
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deja-blu
Joined
Apr 4, 2003
Last login
Oct 21, 2024
Total posts
3,571 (138 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5 games—which
Crowd Factor
Oct 20, 11:40pm
This week is a scary one. Feels like CC. Two time zones. Undefeated. Quirky
Blueto
Oct 20, 11:44pm
That and UCF is good
zerome4sooners
5:40am
3-4 is good? You don't sleep on them but you shouldn't play
gopman
6:04am
Yes. They are good. Took ISU down to the wire and have great team speed.
All-American
6:13am
If we can win this game, I think we can run the table. This game worries me
rebelCoug
7:14am
I'll grant you that at the P4 level "anyone" can beat anyone on any
gopman
8:08am
They'll overcome all that. 8-0 is on its way.
BlueFever
8:55am
Agreed but the fact that we are facing a run heavy team two weeks straight
jre85
12:13pm
When I took Shane Reese’s introductory stats class at BYU, his favorite
BYU Sportz Fan
Oct 20, 11:51pm
Mention that quote to Greg Wrubell...
Cougar McGregor
9:12am
We've won our two games where we played poorly. Play well at UCF and it's a win.
dYrtbYkerYder
Oct 20, 11:53pm
Hate to break it to you but a 1 loss BYU misses the CCG if Iowa State and
OnEMoReTrY
1:26am
There's a lot of football to be played. Very likely those teams lose again
Y05
3:34am
We have the tiebreaker over Kansas St if we have one loss. We beat them.
cambo
6:59am
He's talking about a 3-way tie (KState, Iowa State, BYU)
Happy As Larry
9:04am
Wait wait, show the work for my edification. 1st tiebreaker is H2H, which we
RoboKayne
7:03am
They wouldn't. In that scenario BYU and Kansas St. make the title game
cougarfan84
7:43am
If it's more than 2 teams in the tie, head to head is ignored, unless the tied
BYUFootballisBack
9:02am
Thanks.
RoboKayne
11:29am
BYU 11-1 very likely in playoffs. Very few 1 loss teams missed the 4 team CFP
NYC and Japan
7:07am
For kicks, what if we are 10-1 going into the conference championship game, but lose that game? Are we in CFP at 10-2?
dingus79
9:15am
You mean 11-1 and 11-2, yes I think it unlikely an 11 win team misses CFP based
NYC and Japan
9:23am
Oh yeah, sorry, fuzzy math
dingus79
9:25am
Depends on how many 2-loss SEC and BigX teams there are
byugrad+fan
9:36am
What are you talking about? First tiebreaker is H2H and BYU would be 1-0 while
cougarfan84
7:42am
Colorado was also mentioned. Would we be above them as well?
rebelCoug
7:54am
I ask because I don't know the tie breakers.
rebelCoug
7:54am
In a 3-way tie between Kansas St., BYU, and Colorado, it's also KSU and BYU.
cougarfan84
8:07am
Actually H2H only applies if all tied teams played each other or one beat all
zuko
8:00am
You're right. I missed that caveat in the rules. I'll have to look at the
cougarfan84
8:20am
OK. Looking at the tiebreakers, let's take the scenario where the favored team
cougarfan84
9:13am
These simulations agree with your thinking. Colorado very rarely gets in over us
zuko
9:16am
Right. If BYU is on the losing side of a multi-team tiebreaker, it's likely
cougarfan84
9:43am
Great analysis. Thanks.
byugrad+fan
9:48am
1-loss BYU makes the CCG in 95.7% of my simulations. Of course this depends on
zuko
7:58am
Statistically speaking, 100 football seasons in school history. 1 undefeated.
Y05
3:31am
RE: Statistically speaking, BYU is VERY likely to lose one of the next 5
deja-blu
4:06am
Like Okie St, KU is looking like they're finally starting to wake up. They got some serious offensive talent.
SinkingQuffa
4:41am
LOL what? They played Houston...You could sleepwalk to a win against them.
kaladin58
6:44am
Houston plays hard. They're scrappy & play with pride, despite the youth & holes in the talent. They'd just come off
SinkingQuffa
6:53am
I’m going to focus on the wrong game. I hope I don’t ruin it for everyone.
HenderCoug
4:49am
ESPN FPI shows 10-2 is most likely
Tuskaloosa Cougar
5:34am
Yeah, I don't think that's what those numbers mean
CommodoreCoug
7:57am
10-2 is most likely
zuko
8:04am
Agree in the way it’s presented it’s not what they mean. But 10-2 is most likely
Tuskaloosa Cougar
8:20am
However the odds to win each game has never been higher, and most of them are
Trackster
7:05am
Also, statistically speaking, BYU was very likely to lose one of its first 7.
Mark
7:32am
While I want BYU undefeated I understand the odds are against us.
DazeofBlue
9:22am
I’m sorry, guys, but every Away game I go to BYU has lost and I’m going
ACrop
9:32am
I know someone that had only been to losses for the last ~10 seasons, hes
BYUFootballisBack
10:06am
Iowa State as lucky as we were to pull off that win last Saturday.
CaughtForaTouchdown
10:28am
Likely we lose two games. Capable of winning out. Whatever…great year!
texaskevin
12:29pm
Well, I'm sure Utah started prepping for BYU as of yesterday. I think they'd
Cheap Seats
12:30pm
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