48.7 is good, but the consequence of failing on a 4th down try is worse

Sep 16, 2024
3:47:36pm

Belboz Intervention Needed

than the consequence of failing on 3rd down.

Also, my opinion about 4th downs should be disregarded because i'm admittedly irrationally against them.

Report problem with this ad

Belboz

Bio page: Belboz
Joined: Jul 5, 2001
Last login: Sep 19, 2024
Total posts: 76,123 (13,634 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

POLL: Do you agree with BYU's chosen strategy of using 4th down more often than anyone else in the nation?

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Sep 16, 3:29pm

FWIW, I'm personally undecided on this topic until I see more data.

Indy Coug

Sep 16, 3:29pm

That highschool who never kicks man. You can't score without the ball. Don't

paulb

Sep 16, 3:30pm

I strongly disagree with the "never kick" philosophy

Indy Coug

Sep 16, 3:31pm

RE: I strongly disagree with the "never kick" philosophy

paulb

Sep 16, 3:34pm

Numbers look good early this year, but I expect the success rate to drop significantly as the season progresses

kccougar

Sep 16, 3:32pm

Only two teams exceeded 80% conversions on 4th down last year

Indy Coug

Sep 16, 3:33pm

I put no. I don’t think there is enough data to always go for it on 4th.

Mathew

Sep 16, 3:32pm

Not really. I think we left points on the board at SMU in a game where points

NOCAL_YFAN

Sep 16, 3:36pm

The biggest complaint I have about A-Rod - more than running option to the short

Iron Coug

Sep 16, 3:37pm

Even with the added .800 conversion rate on 4th down, that still only brings the

foofcoug

Sep 16, 3:38pm

(11 3rd down conversions + 8 4th down conversions) / (39 3rd downs) = 1st downs 48.7% of the time

Indy Coug

Sep 16, 3:40pm

48.7 is good, but the consequence of failing on a 4th down try is worse

Belboz

Sep 16, 3:47pm

I agree that a 4th down failure is worse. Quantifying how much worse is not straightforward.

Indy Coug

Sep 16, 3:49pm

Agreed plus we're only attempting a fraction of the total 4th downs, we're

Rhubarb

Sep 16, 3:51pm

Given that we've converted on 8/10. I'd say we're doing it right so far.

ManicBlue

Sep 16, 3:39pm

I'm extremely conservative and hate risk. I like punting on 4th down

Belboz

Sep 16, 3:43pm

I wish BYU's chosen strategy was to convert 3rd downs more often than just once

IceCreamButt

Sep 16, 3:44pm

When you are playing teams you're clearly better than, then you need to go for it on 4th down more often than the

HarlemCoug

Sep 16, 3:46pm

And this seems to match up with Kalani/Arod's philosopy.

kccougar

Sep 16, 3:47pm

Rule should be 1 punt per quarter.

Longseason

Sep 16, 3:58pm

BYU is punting 4 times a game, which is about average nationally.

Indy Coug

Sep 16, 4:01pm

I think given opponent quality, distance to gain, and field position ...

Coop

Sep 16, 4:01pm

It's a non-issue if BYU could actually convert on 3rd downs. 4th worst in the nation this year; 2nd worst last year.

Posting on CougarBoard