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Sep 16, 2024
7:59
:13
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RGGeemer
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RGGeemer
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rggee
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RGGeemer
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Aug 18, 2010
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Sep 19, 2024
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Messages
Author
Time
A peek into how just about every analytics ranking system is biased by preseason ratings
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
Sep 16, 7:40am
Notre Dame at 8.....wow.
WJCougar
Sep 16, 7:42am
Should be a real challenge this weekend. Go Cougs!
inertiaman
Sep 16, 7:47am
Which of course, makes sense. A ranking system based entirely on 1 or 2 or even 3 games would be completely worthless.
TCuz
Sep 16, 7:52am
It would be limited, but this model is *worse* than worthless, because it creates capricious bias based on something
mvtoro
Sep 16, 10:13am
Dumb
RGGeemer
Sep 16, 7:59am
The weaker the signal, the more weight you put on your prior. That isn't bias.
Coop
Sep 16, 8:48am
I'm no numbers guy like you but I have been saying this for years.
CougaRR4L
Sep 16, 9:33am
Florida State anyone? WA beaten by WA St yet #15.
ImuaKahuku
Sep 16, 10:38am
rankings would be a laughing stock if they didn't do this however
Hill4Heisman
Sep 16, 10:47am
It would be better for them to look meaningless until they have actual meaning.
mvtoro
Sep 16, 11:14am
Or ideally, they could figure out how much to weight preseason priors, using historical data to get the best predictions
krindorr
Sep 16, 11:18am
Statistically/analytically this makes sense though; historically a better predictor than just overreacting to game or 2
krindorr
Sep 16, 11:13am
What makes the most sense is to not rank teams until at least part way in.
ImuaKahuku
Sep 16, 11:57am
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