Historically, SP+ has been useful for getting win probability percentage in each game (formula below)
Given that, here's our win probabilities (by SP+) against each team on the schedule
- vs Southern Illinois: 88.4% (could be higher, SP+ doesn't have FCS)
- @ SMU: 19.5%
- @Wyoming: 51.6%
- vs Kansas St 20.3%
- @ Baylor: 46.2%
- vs Arizona: 20.3%
- vs Oklahoma St: 22.6%
- @ UCF 40.5%
- @ Utah 10.7%
- vs Kansas 32.5%
- @ Arizona St 53.0%
- vs Houston 62.5%
So that means we are favored against 4 teams.... but the best prediction of number of wins (by SP+) is 4.73...meaning over 4.5, but that seems like the most reasonable half-integer number to go with, especially depending on the juice on that over/under.