Another fun fact: price cuts in Boise, Austin and other major metros that exploded have already dropped ~15% from the peak in less than a year. This is far faster than prices fell during the GFC which makes sense because the problems are entirely different this time around. The only reason this is not being called a housing crash already is because everyone knows prices went way too high and a drop was inevitable.

Lack of supply may or may not save elevated home values but right now I wouldn't feel confident on values staying up. Short supply only helps as long as it out paces demand. Demand is falling further and faster than anyone predicted. Most people didn't think it would dip at all and many have ignored rising DTI and plummeting mortgage applications saying "demand is still high". Its not.

We are only just now starting to see a major slowdowns in manufacturing, container shipping rates and hiring. Student loan payments are still paused and short term bonds are rebounding meaning the banking crisis isn't done yet. By all objective measures we have months to go before anyone understands just how hard the economy is going to be hit. Home prices in many areas could easily fall much further.

Anyways, all that just to say I don't think its naive to think prices may drop. Its naive to think its impossible given our current economic conditions.