The author of the rebuttal:

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Mar 18, 2020
6:12:49pm

bythenumbers Walk-on

The author of the rebuttal:

Apparently he's still trying to figure out himself some ideas. We're in a tough situation with a lot of bad options. Some default to economy, some default to health and safety. Either choice involves horrible costs and a lot of uncertainty.

Apologies to the hundreds who have emailed (journalists et al) and I have ignored. I fear those numbers will grow. I am prioritizing trying to do science, keep some time aside to think out of the box about ways out of our distancing vs ICU dilemma, sleep, & see family.
— Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) March 17, 2020

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1240027944845705217

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bythenumbers

Bio page: bythenumbers
Joined: Mar 16, 2020
Last login: Sep 20, 2024
Total posts: 1,984 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

“Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting to Coronavirus.”

monteburns

3/18/20 3:49pm

I've been trying to say this.... #SMH

Indy Coug

3/18/20 3:51pm

We've all been trying to say this. Basically since the beginning but for sure since before the shutdowns started.

Pimpin4Paradise

3/18/20 3:52pm

Here's a very key quote in the article

Indy Coug

3/18/20 3:53pm

And this quote, showing how the cause of death is measured is subjective...

bluefish

3/18/20 5:47pm

For statistician he’s guilty of cherry picking his data.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 7:46pm

That’s why he gives such a range of possible mortality rates up to 0.625

ledfoot

3/18/20 10:27pm

It’s not a real sample though. It artificial in many ways.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 11:46pm

No sample is good

bythenumbers

3/19/20 6:17am

Because death is a low frequency event, you need a very large sample size for "statistically credible" data

Indy Coug

3/19/20 8:14am

You do realize

bythenumbers

3/19/20 8:17am

You do realize that I'm an actuary and understand mortality rates and what "statistically credible" means?

Indy Coug

3/19/20 8:28am

I think you are correct in that the data is dirty and incomplete. The problem

StalwartBraveTrue

3/19/20 8:48am

I'm supportive of the status quo

bythenumbers

3/19/20 9:15am

I agree no action is without risk. Which risk is worse?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/19/20 9:28am

Alarmists: Oh yeah, does that guy even have a degree in epidemiology? What's that? He does? Oh...

Pimpin4Paradise

3/18/20 3:52pm

Well, where were these people last week? Why didn’t they provide input

OmahaThunderCoug

3/18/20 3:54pm

Because it's politically expedient to be seen as the most cautious, most "caring"

Indy Coug

3/18/20 3:58pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/18/20 4:04pm

Dr. Anthony Fauci is anything but political. His voice should be trusted 100% on this.

3/18/20 4:07pm

Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?

Crowgar

3/18/20 7:34pm

RE: Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?

3/18/20 7:44pm

High profile people and organizations is exactly what did it.

Y05

3/19/20 3:54am

The change happened in a blink of an eye and they expected that

CSoul

3/18/20 4:01pm

Exactly. And not to mention, all this mayhem started just 1 week ago

Coug Man in Florida

3/18/20 7:00pm

So, coming out against the data that doesn’t exist?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 7:48pm

Maybe because they wanted actual data first before going alarmist

pegushin

3/18/20 4:03pm

The experts and people in charge at the WHO and CDC have been waiting their

JAGA97

3/18/20 3:54pm

Not all of them.

No touching

3/18/20 4:00pm

Not an expert...

CSoul

3/18/20 4:00pm

Thank you for posting, makes sense.Waiting for resident CB alarmists to chime in

Run-DMT

3/18/20 4:05pm

Why does he rely on Princess cruise when we have lots of data from

Plato

3/18/20 4:06pm

Because it's the only study where we have a population that was all together

CSoul

3/18/20 4:07pm

Truly revolutionary concept

Indy Coug

3/18/20 4:12pm

The type of people that go on a cruise are hardly representative of a country's population, no matter

mik3

3/18/20 4:14pm

The article acknowledges it but at the same time you were able to capture the full population of the ship

Indy Coug

3/18/20 4:16pm

Yep, I read that. Found the professor's critique to be solid and well-informed.

mik3

3/18/20 4:22pm

Yes, not gospel truth AT ALL. Just another data point. BTW, Germany

CSoul

3/18/20 5:06pm

The Princess Cruise is literally the best data we have.

buhlcougar

3/18/20 4:09pm

Control group. All together. All tested. Outcomes known.

RugbyCoug

3/18/20 4:15pm

That's very much not the definition of a control group.

mik3

3/18/20 4:16pm

It's a closed circuit where we were able to test those that that were

Bostonblue

3/18/20 4:44pm

Selection bias and the size of n in this case means it's hard to tell how close any of its estimators are to the real

mik3

3/18/20 4:55pm

South Korea was not testing everyone in their country. There were very likely

Bostonblue

3/18/20 5:09pm

What's your source for SK being "at a 0.1% death rate. Better than seasonal flu"? It's wrong. It's ~1%.

mik3

3/18/20 5:28pm

Yep, depending on the population of elderly it is .5% to 1.5%. I think what was

CSoul

3/18/20 5:31pm

I hope that's the case. If the data backs that up, I'll be extremely happy for things to go back to ~normal.

mik3

3/18/20 5:33pm

Testing doesn’t save people. Compliance does

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:13pm

Not even close. They were isolated and forced to sit in the rooms for 14 days

Coug-Ida

3/18/20 6:24pm

Thank you!! It's about time we start seeing more of these types of articles

Bostonblue

3/18/20 4:10pm

AMEN AND PREACH!!

3/18/20 4:45pm

Italy is not doing anyone favors

Qhall

3/18/20 4:47pm

22,000 die per year from the flu in Italy

chazen

3/19/20 1:30am

Interesting article - 0.125% death rate of those infected. That sounds great

BYUfan92

3/18/20 5:02pm

Imperial College Data

jamesallenrocks

3/18/20 5:07pm

Funny to me that CB screams fake news! whenever a legit news agency is cited,

runnincoug

3/18/20 5:16pm

Confirmation bias is ridiculous here. Honestly cannot believe the prevailing

Machiavelli

3/18/20 5:37pm

The source of the link is irrelevant. It was published elsewhere first and they picked up the story.

Indy Coug

3/18/20 5:39pm

But if the reverse happened there would be immediate outcries for why are you

runnincoug

3/18/20 6:19pm

An agency that is extremely biased isn't really legit.

ditch

3/18/20 8:21pm

Daily wire is actually a pretty good source even though they aren’t the source

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:17pm

I read it a lot, actually, probably every day—and yes, they are totally biased.

runnincoug

3/18/20 11:21pm

You’re wrong. I have heard tons of critique on Trump and not just recently

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:24pm

I read/listen everyday...I subscribe to their feed.

runnincoug

3/19/20 7:22am

Here is a Harvard rebuttal

bythenumbers

3/18/20 5:50pm

Even the Rebuttal admits that long term social distancing is not a viable

Bostonblue

3/18/20 6:01pm

Because letting it "run its course" without controlling velocity would lead to disaster, including

mik3

3/18/20 6:05pm

There's an obvious middle road approach that doesn't lead

Bostonblue

3/18/20 6:20pm

It's not clear

bythenumbers

3/18/20 6:25pm

IMO, we will eventually have no choice but to adopt the tailored/moderate

Bostonblue

3/18/20 7:25pm

I agree

bythenumbers

3/18/20 7:44pm

And local by state. A solution in ny likely won’t work in rural America

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:20pm

Here's why

bythenumbers

3/18/20 6:09pm

The author of the rebuttal:

bythenumbers

3/18/20 6:12pm

Stating the low testing numbers is more likely to show

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:19pm

I fear it has already gone too far too fast to be easily reversible. SMH....

BleedCougarBlue2

3/18/20 6:01pm

This has been my fear all along

runningfoo

3/18/20 6:10pm

All I got out of this is a Cougar could beat an Elephant. BYU will beat Alabama!

dadofkhec

3/18/20 7:34pm

So we're supposed to sit around and wait for "reliable data" before we act? Lol

Machiavelli

3/18/20 7:38pm

No we should take a measured approach before we know the data

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:22pm

I've been asked

South_A

3/18/20 7:39pm

He makes the exact same mistake in the opposite direction.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 7:44pm

The daily wire? That's as far as I got.

ditch

3/18/20 8:16pm

No

bythenumbers

3/18/20 8:33pm

I don't think enough is known about how this virus is going to behave to come

3/18/20 8:24pm

Totally agree. There just isn’t enough data to make or oppose inferences.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 8:50pm

Just watched Contagion. This guy reminds me of Jude Law.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/19/20 12:02am

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