Feb 1, 2019
10:01:49am
nwcat All-American
Lies, (REALLY BAD) Lies and Statistics and the Standard of 20 wins
Several weeks ago while listening to one of the BYU Basketball games on the radio Greg and Mark were discussing the 20 win "standard" that BYU and Dave Rose are so proud of and use to support the argument that BYU Basketball is in good shape and among the leaders/elite programs of College Basketball. In the conversation Mark attempted to name the other coaches in this category and they were Mark Few (Gonzaga), Bill Self (Kansas), Roy Williams (UNC) and Mike Krzyzewski (Duke) and there might have been another but I don't remember. The gist of the discussion between Mark and Greg was "that's pretty elite company" with the implication that somehow the rest of college basketball when listing the most successful programs over the past 10 or 15 years would mention BYU and Dave Rose in with UNC, Duke, Kansas and Gonzaga in at least the top 10.

When I heard that discussion I couldn't help but recall that phrase that Mark Twain made famous that there were Lies, (REALLY BAD) Lies and Statistics with the clear implication that statistics and particularly a single statistic can be used to say almost anything and any argument that relies on such a statistic is nothing but weak and unworthy. First, if any national college basketball analyst listed the top 10 or even 20 programs none of them would include BYU in that list because no one cares about regular season wins. The measure of a successful program is both making and then winning games in the Tournament.

Here is where things don't look so rosy for Coach Rose. This will mark the 5th year that BYU fails to make the field of 64 (BYU lost to Ole Miss in the Play in Game in 2015). In that time the total Tournament wins for the programs Greg and Mark compared to Rose and BYU:
Gonzaga: 11
Kansas: 11
UNC: 14
Duke: 9

Going back to the 2011-12 Season (post Jimmer) BYU made the field of 64 twice (winning play-in games in 2012 and 2014) but failed to win any games in the real Tournament's field of 64. In that time the total Tournament wins for the programs Greg and Mark compared to Rose and BYU:
Gonzaga: 13
Kansas: 19
UNC: 18
Duke: 14

Going back over the last 10 years BYU has 3 wins in the field of 64 (Jimmer's last two years). In that time the total Tournament wins for the programs Greg and Mark compared to Rose and BYU:
Gonzaga: 17
Kansas: 31
UNC: 31
Duke: 25

When we apply the old Sesame Street song: "which one of these is not like the others, and which one of these just doesn't belong," to the group of Rose, Few, Williams, Self and Krzyzewski the answer just isn't even hard.

Regardless of what time period chosen the body of work of Rose and BYU Basketball is mediocre at best. Obviously Tom Holmoe and the BYU administration believe that Rose's performance is acceptable and even meritorious and that all is well. If they want to make that argument then at least provide some solid rational and not a meaningless statistic of 20 wins.
nwcat
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nwcat
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Jan 3, 2002
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