If you go to the #2 Big 12 team (since we're talking about the possibility of getting two teams in with a non-BYU at large), that's Iowa St at #17

And ahead of them is

• 7 SEC teams
• 4 B1G teams
• 3 ACC teams
• Notre Dame
• Boise St

Granted, the AP Poll isn't a perfect predictor of the CFP Rankings, but it's the best bet we have so far. And that's a LOT of people to pass, especially if they take another loss (even in the CCG)