^^^ This. The spread moves to keep $$ bet on each team approximately equal,

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Oct 24, 2024
4:43:57pm

AT Cougar Starter

^^^ This. The spread moves to keep $$ bet on each team approximately equal,

so as to minimize the house's or bookie's exposure regardless of how the game turns out.

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AT Cougar

Bio page: AT Cougar
Joined: Oct 24, 2015
Last login: Oct 24, 2024
Total posts: 1,074 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

You guys know the point spread is the best predictor of the outcome? It’s off by

Genghis Spreads

4:21pm

It isn't true that the point spread is "off by an average of zero". The easiest way to disprove this is that different

HarlemCoug

4:26pm

That doesn’t disprove anything. Different bookies can be off for different

Genghis Spreads

4:29pm

It isn't about the error being 0, it's about the betting being roughly equal on each side of the spread.

CougPrime

4:34pm

^^^ This. The spread moves to keep $$ bet on each team approximately equal,

AT Cougar

4:43pm

It’s not off by zero every game. It’s off by an average of zero.

Genghis Spreads

5:21pm

It isn't, though. It's based on bets, not results.

CougPrime

5:32pm

It is based on bets. But it’s the best predictor, for reasons I stated in the OP

Genghis Spreads

6:00pm

Bets spreads do not converge to zero error against the result. Feel free to start keeping track if you don't believe me

CougPrime

6:06pm

Actually, I have. But before I tested it, the results are found in this book:

Genghis Spreads

6:24pm

Not quite what that book Is about, but nice effort on the troll. 👍

CougPrime

6:49pm

OK say you didn't read it without saying you didn't read it.

Genghis Spreads

7:01pm

The point spread is designed to do one thing...

Adrielle

4:48pm

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