No - 82% that we are in 1st or 2nd place. 31% of the time we'd be tied and need to win tiebreaker to get to CCG.

Sign up, and you can make all message times appear in your timezone. Sign up

Report problem with this ad

Oct 24, 2024
10:38:37am

Skeeziks All-American

No - 82% that we are in 1st or 2nd place. 31% of the time we'd be tied and need to win tiebreaker to get to CCG.

Report problem with this ad

Skeeziks

Bio page: Skeeziks
Joined: Aug 6, 2003
Last login: Dec 28, 2024
Total posts: 9,738 (136 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

Big 12 Football Final Standings Analysis

Skeeziks All-American

Oct 24, 5:48am

there is a 6% chance Utah will be ranked higher than byu at end of season.

conetah

Oct 24, 6:08am

How do you get that?

durandal

Oct 24, 6:13am

Actually my math is bad. I change my answer to .08% (edited)

conetah

Oct 24, 6:27am

Still off by a factor of 10 but you get partial credit for showing your work

Hiccupless

Oct 24, 6:35am

Fixed it professor ha. Good catch

conetah

Oct 24, 6:46am

That is not quite correct since Utah finishing in 4th likely means beating BYU

jreid191

Oct 24, 9:32am

I think you’re reading it wrong. Need to multiply probabilities, not add them.

Hiccupless

Oct 24, 6:20am

Yup, I was. I redid it

conetah

Oct 24, 6:27am

I looked at it and 99.2% of the time BYU better; 0.2% Utah better and tie 0.6%

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 6:34am

Thanks. Was just going off your rounded numbers above. Cool simulation.

Hiccupless

Oct 24, 6:37am

Uhhh, I really like, and really don't like 99.2% odds, then.

Oct 24, 7:00am

Bamacoug worthy stuff. Love it.

Pro Logic

Oct 24, 6:45am

This is cool, although the win probability of beating OSU was less than 1% on

ForzaPuma

Oct 24, 6:57am

Good stuff

dodgersjazzcougs

Oct 24, 7:11am

One in five chance that we miss the CCG outright. We need to remember that.

Greg4BYU

Oct 24, 7:43am

Interesting to me that beating UCF has a higher probability than beating Utah

Flyski

Oct 24, 7:48am

I'm no math guy, but how can BYU and ISU both have above a 50% chance of

Cougs'16

Oct 24, 8:44am

No - if they tie for first then they both show up in the 1 column. Don't try to do tie breakers here.

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 8:46am

Ah right. Thanks

Cougs'16

Oct 24, 8:50am

Great insight. Would love to see this updated each week.

Oct 24, 9:03am

So 82% chance we make the Big 12 CCG. That's all that matters.

Oct 24, 10:26am

No - 82% that we are in 1st or 2nd place. 31% of the time we'd be tied and need to win tiebreaker to get to CCG.

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 10:38am

Here's what I think of probabilities:

BYUDM93

Oct 24, 10:34am

Love it, please post this each week

Hill4Heisman

Oct 24, 11:00am

Why does it give a combined 159% chance a team could finish first, but only a 50% chance for a last place finish?

unctoothman

Oct 24, 11:18am

You can tie for first but can’t tie for last.

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 11:22am

All the data leaves out the outcome of the CCG, right?

Brandoblueblood

Oct 24, 12:22pm

ok.. what do we really want to happen to maximize reaching CCG, assuming we don't run the table. KSU over ISU? or do we

timpjynx

Oct 24, 12:41pm

So at minimum at 52% chance of making the conference championship game?

NacoCoug

Oct 24, 12:50pm

Should each column add to 100%?

Incentivize

Oct 24, 12:58pm

No. Because tiebreakers aren't applied in this model so multiple teams can be 1

Greg4BYU

Oct 24, 1:08pm

This is the type of analysis that makes me so glad to be on CB. Great stuff. Looking forward to updates as they happen.

Oct 24, 1:27pm

Report problem with this ad

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.

Report problem with this ad