I think you’re reading it wrong. Need to multiply probabilities, not add them.

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Oct 24, 2024
6:20:02am

Hiccupless 3rd String

I think you’re reading it wrong. Need to multiply probabilities, not add them.

(.02 x (.01 + .01)) + (.04 x .01) = 0.0008

0.08% chance the Utes are higher than BYU

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Hiccupless

Bio page: Hiccupless
Joined: Aug 3, 2022
Last login: Dec 27, 2024
Total posts: 352 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Big 12 Football Final Standings Analysis

Skeeziks All-American

Oct 24, 5:48am

there is a 6% chance Utah will be ranked higher than byu at end of season.

conetah

Oct 24, 6:08am

How do you get that?

durandal

Oct 24, 6:13am

Actually my math is bad. I change my answer to .08% (edited)

conetah

Oct 24, 6:27am

Still off by a factor of 10 but you get partial credit for showing your work

Hiccupless

Oct 24, 6:35am

Fixed it professor ha. Good catch

conetah

Oct 24, 6:46am

That is not quite correct since Utah finishing in 4th likely means beating BYU

jreid191

Oct 24, 9:32am

I think you’re reading it wrong. Need to multiply probabilities, not add them.

Hiccupless

Oct 24, 6:20am

Yup, I was. I redid it

conetah

Oct 24, 6:27am

I looked at it and 99.2% of the time BYU better; 0.2% Utah better and tie 0.6%

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 6:34am

Thanks. Was just going off your rounded numbers above. Cool simulation.

Hiccupless

Oct 24, 6:37am

Uhhh, I really like, and really don't like 99.2% odds, then.

Oct 24, 7:00am

Bamacoug worthy stuff. Love it.

Pro Logic

Oct 24, 6:45am

This is cool, although the win probability of beating OSU was less than 1% on

ForzaPuma

Oct 24, 6:57am

Good stuff

dodgersjazzcougs

Oct 24, 7:11am

One in five chance that we miss the CCG outright. We need to remember that.

Greg4BYU

Oct 24, 7:43am

Interesting to me that beating UCF has a higher probability than beating Utah

Flyski

Oct 24, 7:48am

I'm no math guy, but how can BYU and ISU both have above a 50% chance of

Cougs'16

Oct 24, 8:44am

No - if they tie for first then they both show up in the 1 column. Don't try to do tie breakers here.

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 8:46am

Ah right. Thanks

Cougs'16

Oct 24, 8:50am

Great insight. Would love to see this updated each week.

Oct 24, 9:03am

So 82% chance we make the Big 12 CCG. That's all that matters.

Oct 24, 10:26am

No - 82% that we are in 1st or 2nd place. 31% of the time we'd be tied and need to win tiebreaker to get to CCG.

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 10:38am

Here's what I think of probabilities:

BYUDM93

Oct 24, 10:34am

Love it, please post this each week

Hill4Heisman

Oct 24, 11:00am

Why does it give a combined 159% chance a team could finish first, but only a 50% chance for a last place finish?

unctoothman

Oct 24, 11:18am

You can tie for first but can’t tie for last.

Skeeziks

Oct 24, 11:22am

All the data leaves out the outcome of the CCG, right?

Brandoblueblood

Oct 24, 12:22pm

ok.. what do we really want to happen to maximize reaching CCG, assuming we don't run the table. KSU over ISU? or do we

timpjynx

Oct 24, 12:41pm

So at minimum at 52% chance of making the conference championship game?

NacoCoug

Oct 24, 12:50pm

Should each column add to 100%?

Incentivize

Oct 24, 12:58pm

No. Because tiebreakers aren't applied in this model so multiple teams can be 1

Greg4BYU

Oct 24, 1:08pm

This is the type of analysis that makes me so glad to be on CB. Great stuff. Looking forward to updates as they happen.

Oct 24, 1:27pm

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