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Oct 21, 2024
9:13:18am
cougarfan84 All-American
OK. Looking at the tiebreakers, let's take the scenario where the favored team
in FPI wins every game for the rest of the season.

That would put Iowa St. at 9-0, BYU and Colorado tied for 2nd at 8-1, and Kansas St. in 4th at 7-2 (with every other team at 5-4 or worse).

Obviously that would put Iowa St. in the title game, and it would be a tiebreaker between Colorado and BYU for the 2nd spot.

First tiebreaker is H2H. Since BYU and Colorado don't play each other that's skipped.
Second tiebreaker is win percentage against common conference opponents. They have 7 common opponents and each went 6-1 against them.
Third tiebreaker is win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent. In this case, that would be Kansas St. BYU beat Kansas St. and Colorado lost to them. Thus, BYU wins the tiebreaker and would be in the title game vs. Iowa St.




Now, let's modify the scenario and say that Kansas St. beats Iowa St. in the season finale. That leave a 4-way tie with Iowa St., Kansas St., BYU, and Colorado all going 8-1 in conference play.

First tiebreaker is H2H. In order for this to apply either every team has to have played every other team, or one team has to have beaten every other team in the tie. Neither of these is true so this tiebreaker is skipped.
Second tiebreaker is win percentage against common conference opponents. The only common opponent is Kansas, whom they all beat.
Third tiebreaker is win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent. This is skipped as Kansas is the only common opponent, whom they all beat.
Fourth Tiebreaker is conference strength of schedule (record of conference opponents). This is where BYU may be in trouble. BYU's opponents would have gone 30-51; Colorado's opponents would have gone 34-47; Iowa St.'s opponents would have gone 35-46; Kansas St.'s opponents would have gone 41-40. As such, it would be Kansas St. vs. Iowa St. in the championship game.


At the end of the day, in a 2-team tie, BYU stacks up well against Colorado, Iowa St., or Kansas St. due to their W over Kansas St. However, if they end up in a 3- or 4-team tie, they may end up in trouble if the tiebreaker ends up being conference strength of schedule, since BYU will have played the 5 worse teams in the conference (Utah, Oklahoma St., Arizona, Kansas, and Houston) while avoiding 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference (Iowa St. and Colorado).
cougarfan84
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