Dec 12, 2022
6:20:54pm
runningryan Pretend Athletic Director
There will be no TV deal
The 10 without LA won’t be able to get over $31M per school and if UCLA is forced to stay the B1G takes Oregon and Washington and kills the PAC. Even if UCLA is allowed to leave, if the Big 12 can leverage the OU and TX exit fees and GORs, it might get enough cash from the networks to entice some PAC schools over. The exit fees are two years revenue. The Big 12 got $42M this year but is on track for $50M this year. That could be forfeited revenue of $100M a piece. The fair market value of the media rights related to the year early will have the SEC’s value of those rights as the starting negotiating point. That could be another $60-80M each. All told, the economic value could be $320-360M.

What if that could be resolved by ESPN increasing the Big 12 media rights to entice PAC schools? Texas and OU could take out a long term loan from ESPN who would settle that economic value with the Big 12 via some sort of in-kind compensation in the form of increased media rights revenue? What if it could get $40M per school? That might entice Oregon and Washington (which could provide some offset to Fox’s loss on Texas and OU inventory). That might explain Kliavkoff’s UCLA desperation.

I think the networks realize after the Rose Bowl theatrics the drama for 2026 onward might simply be resolved by killing the PAC.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Dec 12, 2022 at 6:20:54pm
Message modified by runningryan on Dec 12, 2022 at 6:21:39pm
runningryan
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runningryan
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