Over the last little bit I've actually been gathering stats on viewership and on-field performance for every P5 team (or those mentioned as possible P5 expansion candidates).

There's a lower-quality image at the end the interactive links below work much better.

All Teams

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSwqR5dFHODbE_oXYoLbP_MCnSBOOX7oAi5-s39hGaeAEED_fhNg9913qV_NKCNjwq9Rd1PXiTxy_zj/pubchart?oid=1287750268&format=interactive

There's a clear bottom tier of P5 teams here - Kansas, Illinois, Rutgers, and Vandy.  ...but 3 of those teams are already lucky enough to have homes in the Power 2, and Kansas is a basketball blueblood in the P5 conference best situated to be #3.

Zoomed in to where most teams are (30-60% win%, 0-25% viewership score)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSwqR5dFHODbE_oXYoLbP_MCnSBOOX7oAi5-s39hGaeAEED_fhNg9913qV_NKCNjwq9Rd1PXiTxy_zj/pubchart?oid=1680908327&format=interactive

So looking at THIS chart, there's a clear bottom grouping - Oregon St, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia, Wake Forest, Cal.  If you want to go a bit further, Arizona, NC State, Colorado and maybe Georgia Tech can be included (along with Purdue, UCF, Kentucky and Mizzou who are already safe in stable conferences)

That list lines up pretty well with yours.

You have Wazzu, ASU and Utah in danger despite not being among the weakest programs

And you don't have Virginia, Duke, Cal, and Arizona in danger (despite them being among the weakest performers - on field and on TV - in the ACC and PAC).  Virginia/Duke/Arizona are hoping basketball carries weight, while Virginia/Duke/Cal are hoping academics carries weight