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Mar 18, 2020
10:27
:21
pm
ledfoot
Contributor
That’s why he gives such a range of possible mortality rates up to 0.625
Although his sample size is small, it is, as he points out the only closed sample where an entire population that was exposed was tested.
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ledfoot
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ledfoot
Joined
Oct 27, 2004
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Nov 13, 2024
Total posts
941 (1 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
“Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting to Coronavirus.”
monteburns
3/18/20 3:49pm
I've been trying to say this.... #SMH
Indy Coug
3/18/20 3:51pm
We've all been trying to say this. Basically since the beginning but for sure since before the shutdowns started.
Pimpin4Paradise
3/18/20 3:52pm
Here's a very key quote in the article
Indy Coug
3/18/20 3:53pm
And this quote, showing how the cause of death is measured is subjective...
bluefish
3/18/20 5:47pm
For statistician he’s guilty of cherry picking his data.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 7:46pm
That’s why he gives such a range of possible mortality rates up to 0.625
ledfoot
3/18/20 10:27pm
It’s not a real sample though. It artificial in many ways.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 11:46pm
No sample is good
bythenumbers
3/19/20 6:17am
Because death is a low frequency event, you need a very large sample size for "statistically credible" data
Indy Coug
3/19/20 8:14am
You do realize
bythenumbers
3/19/20 8:17am
You do realize that I'm an actuary and understand mortality rates and what "statistically credible" means?
Indy Coug
3/19/20 8:28am
I think you are correct in that the data is dirty and incomplete. The problem
StalwartBraveTrue
3/19/20 8:48am
I'm supportive of the status quo
bythenumbers
3/19/20 9:15am
I agree no action is without risk. Which risk is worse?
StalwartBraveTrue
3/19/20 9:28am
Alarmists: Oh yeah, does that guy even have a degree in epidemiology? What's that? He does? Oh...
Pimpin4Paradise
3/18/20 3:52pm
Well, where were these people last week? Why didn’t they provide input
OmahaThunderCoug
3/18/20 3:54pm
Because it's politically expedient to be seen as the most cautious, most "caring"
Indy Coug
3/18/20 3:58pm
<< Deleted >>
Abe Froman
3/18/20 4:04pm
Dr. Anthony Fauci is anything but political. His voice should be trusted 100% on this.
TheLoneCougar
3/18/20 4:07pm
Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?
Crowgar
3/18/20 7:34pm
RE: Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?
TheLoneCougar
3/18/20 7:44pm
High profile people and organizations is exactly what did it.
Y05
3/19/20 3:54am
The change happened in a blink of an eye and they expected that
CSoul
3/18/20 4:01pm
Exactly. And not to mention, all this mayhem started just 1 week ago
Coug Man in Florida
3/18/20 7:00pm
So, coming out against the data that doesn’t exist?
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 7:48pm
Maybe because they wanted actual data first before going alarmist
pegushin
3/18/20 4:03pm
The experts and people in charge at the WHO and CDC have been waiting their
JAGA97
3/18/20 3:54pm
Not all of them.
No touching
3/18/20 4:00pm
Not an expert...
CSoul
3/18/20 4:00pm
Thank you for posting, makes sense.Waiting for resident CB alarmists to chime in
Run-DMT
3/18/20 4:05pm
Why does he rely on Princess cruise when we have lots of data from
Plato
3/18/20 4:06pm
Because it's the only study where we have a population that was all together
CSoul
3/18/20 4:07pm
Truly revolutionary concept
Indy Coug
3/18/20 4:12pm
The type of people that go on a cruise are hardly representative of a country's population, no matter
mik3
3/18/20 4:14pm
The article acknowledges it but at the same time you were able to capture the full population of the ship
Indy Coug
3/18/20 4:16pm
Yep, I read that. Found the professor's critique to be solid and well-informed.
mik3
3/18/20 4:22pm
Yes, not gospel truth AT ALL. Just another data point. BTW, Germany
CSoul
3/18/20 5:06pm
The Princess Cruise is literally the best data we have.
buhlcougar
3/18/20 4:09pm
Control group. All together. All tested. Outcomes known.
RugbyCoug
3/18/20 4:15pm
That's very much not the definition of a control group.
mik3
3/18/20 4:16pm
It's a closed circuit where we were able to test those that that were
Bostonblue
3/18/20 4:44pm
Selection bias and the size of n in this case means it's hard to tell how close any of its estimators are to the real
mik3
3/18/20 4:55pm
South Korea was not testing everyone in their country. There were very likely
Bostonblue
3/18/20 5:09pm
What's your source for SK being "at a 0.1% death rate. Better than seasonal flu"? It's wrong. It's ~1%.
mik3
3/18/20 5:28pm
Yep, depending on the population of elderly it is .5% to 1.5%. I think what was
CSoul
3/18/20 5:31pm
I hope that's the case. If the data backs that up, I'll be extremely happy for things to go back to ~normal.
mik3
3/18/20 5:33pm
Testing doesn’t save people. Compliance does
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:13pm
Not even close. They were isolated and forced to sit in the rooms for 14 days
Coug-Ida
3/18/20 6:24pm
Thank you!! It's about time we start seeing more of these types of articles
Bostonblue
3/18/20 4:10pm
Italy is not doing anyone favors
Qhall
3/18/20 4:47pm
22,000 die per year from the flu in Italy
chazen
3/19/20 1:30am
Interesting article - 0.125% death rate of those infected. That sounds great
BYUfan92
3/18/20 5:02pm
Imperial College Data
jamesallenrocks
3/18/20 5:07pm
Funny to me that CB screams fake news! whenever a legit news agency is cited,
runnincoug
3/18/20 5:16pm
Confirmation bias is ridiculous here. Honestly cannot believe the prevailing
Machiavelli
3/18/20 5:37pm
The source of the link is irrelevant. It was published elsewhere first and they picked up the story.
Indy Coug
3/18/20 5:39pm
But if the reverse happened there would be immediate outcries for why are you
runnincoug
3/18/20 6:19pm
An agency that is extremely biased isn't really legit.
ditch
3/18/20 8:21pm
Daily wire is actually a pretty good source even though they aren’t the source
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:17pm
I read it a lot, actually, probably every day—and yes, they are totally biased.
runnincoug
3/18/20 11:21pm
You’re wrong. I have heard tons of critique on Trump and not just recently
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:24pm
I read/listen everyday...I subscribe to their feed.
runnincoug
3/19/20 7:22am
Here is a Harvard rebuttal
bythenumbers
3/18/20 5:50pm
Even the Rebuttal admits that long term social distancing is not a viable
Bostonblue
3/18/20 6:01pm
Because letting it "run its course" without controlling velocity would lead to disaster, including
mik3
3/18/20 6:05pm
There's an obvious middle road approach that doesn't lead
Bostonblue
3/18/20 6:20pm
It's not clear
bythenumbers
3/18/20 6:25pm
IMO, we will eventually have no choice but to adopt the tailored/moderate
Bostonblue
3/18/20 7:25pm
I agree
bythenumbers
3/18/20 7:44pm
And local by state. A solution in ny likely won’t work in rural America
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:20pm
Here's why
bythenumbers
3/18/20 6:09pm
The author of the rebuttal:
bythenumbers
3/18/20 6:12pm
Stating the low testing numbers is more likely to show
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:19pm
I fear it has already gone too far too fast to be easily reversible. SMH....
BleedCougarBlue2
3/18/20 6:01pm
This has been my fear all along
runningfoo
3/18/20 6:10pm
All I got out of this is a Cougar could beat an Elephant. BYU will beat Alabama!
dadofkhec
3/18/20 7:34pm
So we're supposed to sit around and wait for "reliable data" before we act? Lol
Machiavelli
3/18/20 7:38pm
No we should take a measured approach before we know the data
BYU '80
3/18/20 11:22pm
I've been asked
South_A
3/18/20 7:39pm
He makes the exact same mistake in the opposite direction.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 7:44pm
The daily wire? That's as far as I got.
ditch
3/18/20 8:16pm
No
bythenumbers
3/18/20 8:33pm
I don't think enough is known about how this virus is going to behave to come
Countcougula
3/18/20 8:24pm
Totally agree. There just isn’t enough data to make or oppose inferences.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/18/20 8:50pm
Just watched Contagion. This guy reminds me of Jude Law.
StalwartBraveTrue
3/19/20 12:02am
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