There's an obvious middle road approach that doesn't lead

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Mar 18, 2020
6:20:17pm

Bostonblue All Star

There's an obvious middle road approach that doesn't lead

to guaranteed financial disaster. You could easily implement many social distancing measures that don't decimate the economy while quarantining/isolating the old and sick who are most at risk. That would be a reasonable, measured, tailored approach that is based on the data we currently have. Instead, the current measures we have are by definition based on "worst case" scenarios.

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Bostonblue

Bio page: Bostonblue
Joined: Feb 28, 2014
Last login: Sep 21, 2024
Total posts: 6,954 (265 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

“Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting to Coronavirus.”

monteburns

3/18/20 3:49pm

I've been trying to say this.... #SMH

Indy Coug

3/18/20 3:51pm

We've all been trying to say this. Basically since the beginning but for sure since before the shutdowns started.

Pimpin4Paradise

3/18/20 3:52pm

Here's a very key quote in the article

Indy Coug

3/18/20 3:53pm

And this quote, showing how the cause of death is measured is subjective...

bluefish

3/18/20 5:47pm

For statistician he’s guilty of cherry picking his data.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 7:46pm

That’s why he gives such a range of possible mortality rates up to 0.625

ledfoot

3/18/20 10:27pm

It’s not a real sample though. It artificial in many ways.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 11:46pm

No sample is good

bythenumbers

3/19/20 6:17am

Because death is a low frequency event, you need a very large sample size for "statistically credible" data

Indy Coug

3/19/20 8:14am

You do realize

bythenumbers

3/19/20 8:17am

You do realize that I'm an actuary and understand mortality rates and what "statistically credible" means?

Indy Coug

3/19/20 8:28am

I think you are correct in that the data is dirty and incomplete. The problem

StalwartBraveTrue

3/19/20 8:48am

I'm supportive of the status quo

bythenumbers

3/19/20 9:15am

I agree no action is without risk. Which risk is worse?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/19/20 9:28am

Alarmists: Oh yeah, does that guy even have a degree in epidemiology? What's that? He does? Oh...

Pimpin4Paradise

3/18/20 3:52pm

Well, where were these people last week? Why didn’t they provide input

OmahaThunderCoug

3/18/20 3:54pm

Because it's politically expedient to be seen as the most cautious, most "caring"

Indy Coug

3/18/20 3:58pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/18/20 4:04pm

Dr. Anthony Fauci is anything but political. His voice should be trusted 100% on this.

3/18/20 4:07pm

Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?

Crowgar

3/18/20 7:34pm

RE: Does Dr Fauci translate to Dr Fake in another language?

3/18/20 7:44pm

High profile people and organizations is exactly what did it.

Y05

3/19/20 3:54am

The change happened in a blink of an eye and they expected that

CSoul

3/18/20 4:01pm

Exactly. And not to mention, all this mayhem started just 1 week ago

Coug Man in Florida

3/18/20 7:00pm

So, coming out against the data that doesn’t exist?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 7:48pm

Maybe because they wanted actual data first before going alarmist

pegushin

3/18/20 4:03pm

The experts and people in charge at the WHO and CDC have been waiting their

JAGA97

3/18/20 3:54pm

Not all of them.

No touching

3/18/20 4:00pm

Not an expert...

CSoul

3/18/20 4:00pm

Thank you for posting, makes sense.Waiting for resident CB alarmists to chime in

Run-DMT

3/18/20 4:05pm

Why does he rely on Princess cruise when we have lots of data from

Plato

3/18/20 4:06pm

Because it's the only study where we have a population that was all together

CSoul

3/18/20 4:07pm

Truly revolutionary concept

Indy Coug

3/18/20 4:12pm

The type of people that go on a cruise are hardly representative of a country's population, no matter

mik3

3/18/20 4:14pm

The article acknowledges it but at the same time you were able to capture the full population of the ship

Indy Coug

3/18/20 4:16pm

Yep, I read that. Found the professor's critique to be solid and well-informed.

mik3

3/18/20 4:22pm

Yes, not gospel truth AT ALL. Just another data point. BTW, Germany

CSoul

3/18/20 5:06pm

The Princess Cruise is literally the best data we have.

buhlcougar

3/18/20 4:09pm

Control group. All together. All tested. Outcomes known.

RugbyCoug

3/18/20 4:15pm

That's very much not the definition of a control group.

mik3

3/18/20 4:16pm

It's a closed circuit where we were able to test those that that were

Bostonblue

3/18/20 4:44pm

Selection bias and the size of n in this case means it's hard to tell how close any of its estimators are to the real

mik3

3/18/20 4:55pm

South Korea was not testing everyone in their country. There were very likely

Bostonblue

3/18/20 5:09pm

What's your source for SK being "at a 0.1% death rate. Better than seasonal flu"? It's wrong. It's ~1%.

mik3

3/18/20 5:28pm

Yep, depending on the population of elderly it is .5% to 1.5%. I think what was

CSoul

3/18/20 5:31pm

I hope that's the case. If the data backs that up, I'll be extremely happy for things to go back to ~normal.

mik3

3/18/20 5:33pm

Testing doesn’t save people. Compliance does

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:13pm

Not even close. They were isolated and forced to sit in the rooms for 14 days

Coug-Ida

3/18/20 6:24pm

Thank you!! It's about time we start seeing more of these types of articles

Bostonblue

3/18/20 4:10pm

AMEN AND PREACH!!

3/18/20 4:45pm

Italy is not doing anyone favors

Qhall

3/18/20 4:47pm

22,000 die per year from the flu in Italy

chazen

3/19/20 1:30am

Interesting article - 0.125% death rate of those infected. That sounds great

BYUfan92

3/18/20 5:02pm

Imperial College Data

jamesallenrocks

3/18/20 5:07pm

Funny to me that CB screams fake news! whenever a legit news agency is cited,

runnincoug

3/18/20 5:16pm

Confirmation bias is ridiculous here. Honestly cannot believe the prevailing

Machiavelli

3/18/20 5:37pm

The source of the link is irrelevant. It was published elsewhere first and they picked up the story.

Indy Coug

3/18/20 5:39pm

But if the reverse happened there would be immediate outcries for why are you

runnincoug

3/18/20 6:19pm

An agency that is extremely biased isn't really legit.

ditch

3/18/20 8:21pm

Daily wire is actually a pretty good source even though they aren’t the source

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:17pm

I read it a lot, actually, probably every day—and yes, they are totally biased.

runnincoug

3/18/20 11:21pm

You’re wrong. I have heard tons of critique on Trump and not just recently

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:24pm

I read/listen everyday...I subscribe to their feed.

runnincoug

3/19/20 7:22am

Here is a Harvard rebuttal

bythenumbers

3/18/20 5:50pm

Even the Rebuttal admits that long term social distancing is not a viable

Bostonblue

3/18/20 6:01pm

Because letting it "run its course" without controlling velocity would lead to disaster, including

mik3

3/18/20 6:05pm

There's an obvious middle road approach that doesn't lead

Bostonblue

3/18/20 6:20pm

It's not clear

bythenumbers

3/18/20 6:25pm

IMO, we will eventually have no choice but to adopt the tailored/moderate

Bostonblue

3/18/20 7:25pm

I agree

bythenumbers

3/18/20 7:44pm

And local by state. A solution in ny likely won’t work in rural America

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:20pm

Here's why

bythenumbers

3/18/20 6:09pm

The author of the rebuttal:

bythenumbers

3/18/20 6:12pm

Stating the low testing numbers is more likely to show

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:19pm

I fear it has already gone too far too fast to be easily reversible. SMH....

BleedCougarBlue2

3/18/20 6:01pm

This has been my fear all along

runningfoo

3/18/20 6:10pm

All I got out of this is a Cougar could beat an Elephant. BYU will beat Alabama!

dadofkhec

3/18/20 7:34pm

So we're supposed to sit around and wait for "reliable data" before we act? Lol

Machiavelli

3/18/20 7:38pm

No we should take a measured approach before we know the data

BYU '80

3/18/20 11:22pm

I've been asked

South_A

3/18/20 7:39pm

He makes the exact same mistake in the opposite direction.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 7:44pm

The daily wire? That's as far as I got.

ditch

3/18/20 8:16pm

No

bythenumbers

3/18/20 8:33pm

I don't think enough is known about how this virus is going to behave to come

3/18/20 8:24pm

Totally agree. There just isn’t enough data to make or oppose inferences.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/18/20 8:50pm

Just watched Contagion. This guy reminds me of Jude Law.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/19/20 12:02am

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