Should we be in if we finish 11-1, make the CCG and then lose and are 11-2? Probably. But will we? Let's look at the teams we'd have to compete with

Here's other teams that would absolutely be in (in no particular order and assuming no massive upsets)

1. Oregon
2. Ohio St (even if they lose to Indiana, that's two losses in the B1G which will beat our two losses in the Big 12, especially given their brand and that both their losses are to top 5 teams)
3. Penn St
4. Indiana (assuming they at least beat Purdue, they'll have no more than two losses, which would be to #2 Ohio St and #1 Oregon)
5. Texas
6. Miami/SMU ACC Champ
7. Notre Dame (assuming they beat Army)
8. G5 champ
9. Big 12 Champ

So that leaves... 3 spots for Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M (if they beat Texas), and BYU (also the Miami/SMU loser, but I think we're ahead of those due to our SMU win)

If Texas loses in the CCG the path gets even tougher.  Probably the (semi-realistic) outcome that helps most is if Army can beat Notre Dame