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Oct 24, 2024
4:21
:31
pm
Genghis Spreads
All-American
You guys know the point spread is the best predictor of the outcome? It’s off by
An average of zero.
That’s because if someone had a model that will consistently best the spread, it’ll move the spread.
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Genghis Spreads
Previous username
BeefNoodleSoup
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Genghis Spreads
Joined
Feb 23, 2004
Last login
Oct 24, 2024
Total posts
35,383 (316 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
You guys know the point spread is the best predictor of the outcome? It’s off by
Genghis Spreads
4:21pm
It isn't true that the point spread is "off by an average of zero". The easiest way to disprove this is that different
HarlemCoug
4:26pm
That doesn’t disprove anything. Different bookies can be off for different
Genghis Spreads
4:29pm
It isn't about the error being 0, it's about the betting being roughly equal on each side of the spread.
CougPrime
4:34pm
^^^ This. The spread moves to keep $$ bet on each team approximately equal,
AT Cougar
4:43pm
It’s not off by zero every game. It’s off by an average of zero.
Genghis Spreads
5:21pm
It isn't, though. It's based on bets, not results.
CougPrime
5:32pm
It is based on bets. But it’s the best predictor, for reasons I stated in the OP
Genghis Spreads
6:00pm
Bets spreads do not converge to zero error against the result. Feel free to start keeping track if you don't believe me
CougPrime
6:06pm
Actually, I have. But before I tested it, the results are found in this book:
Genghis Spreads
6:24pm
Not quite what that book Is about, but nice effort on the troll. 👍
CougPrime
6:49pm
OK say you didn't read it without saying you didn't read it.
Genghis Spreads
7:01pm
The point spread is designed to do one thing...
Adrielle
4:48pm
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