Using Sagarin ratings to calculate probabilities of victories, I simulated the rest of the Big 12 season 1,000 times. Based on that, below are probabilities and summaries.

Here are probabilities of final standings.



Not surprisingly, BYU and Iowa State are most likely to win conference - with K State next and then Colorado. Here are their remaining schedules, with probabilities of winning from highest to lowest.



Here are BYU's probabilities of different end of season scenarios. In more than 50% of the outcomes BYU is in the championship game. 31% of the time they would be in position to go to the championship game, but it would be up to tiebreakers (and that was too complicated for me to try to figure out). Only 18% of the time was BYU not even in the running since they ended in 3rd place or worse.



Finally, just for a macro look, more than likely the conference champion will have either no losses or only 1 loss (8 or 9 wins). 2nd place team around half the time they have 1 loss, and about the other half of the time they have 2 losses. A few scenarios where a team could get in with 3 losses, but that is very unlikely.



Pretty incredible where BYU stands considering projections going into the season!