Alabama has a really, really good basketball team. While BYU has beaten top 15 teams like ISU, Arizona, and Wisconsin, they haven't beaten a top 8 team like Alabama this season (only other top 8 teams BYU has played are Texas Tech and Houston). And Bama played the #1 strength of schedule this season.

In all 8 of Alabama's losses, the victor scored at least 74 points. In 6 of Bama's losses, the victor scored over 80, and in 4, over 90. Out of the SEC teams, BYU is most statistically similar to Kentucky and Missouri (great offense, mediocre defense). Alabama beat Kentucky all 3x, and lost at Missouri. Tough forecast for our Cougs. It goes without saying that the Cougars are going to beat the Tide in an offensive shootout, but how?

• BYU has to find ways to put up more shots than Alabama, and there's some decent possibilities here: 
  • Alabama is #351 in the country at forcing turnovers, so they're not going to apply that heavy on-ball pressure that can stall out BYU's offense. BYU needs to keep their turnovers to single digits (averaging 12 TOs per game). And if they do turn it over, make sure it's a dead ball turnover, because Alabama is lethal in transition.
  • Meanwhile, Alabama is just okay at taking care of the basketball (#140). They like to play with pace (#1 in adjusted tempo). If BYU can bait Alabama into sloppy passes in transition, that's another way to steal some possessions (Cougs average 7 steals per game).
  • Alabama is pretty good at offensive rebounds (#52), while BYU is very solid themselves at defensive rebounding (#31). Cleaning up the defensive glass needs to be a point of emphasis for all 5 BYU players. Only 1-and-done possessions for Alabama.
  • Alabama is just okay in defensive rebounding (#154), as their guards like to leak out early for transition opportunities, not too dissimilar from how Dave Rose liked to run the offense. BU is above average in getting 2nd chance opportunities (#64). While BYU probably needs to send 4 guys back immediately after every shot attempt to slow down Alabama's transition offense, can Saunders, Keita, and Fouss opportunistically combine for >10 offensive boards (currently averaging ~10 per game)?
    
    
• Don't force 3 pointers ourselves, bait Alabama into bad 3 pointers:
  • While Alabama is not an elite defensive team, they are top 35. What they do well is take away both 3 point attempts (#46), and not let teams shoot efficiently from 3 (#20). Conversely, Alabama is #188 at sending opposing teams to the FT line (their bigs love to block shots). They would rather run teams off the 3 point line and take their chances with their bigs protect the rim. Fortunately, BYU is #6 in the country at 2 point efficiency, whereas Alabama is #81 at 2 point defense.
  • Speaking of FT attempts, the way Missouri beat Alabama at home was by taking an astronomical 47 FTs. Now, Missouri is #2 in the country at getting to the line, while unfortunately BYU is #254 at drawing shooting fouls, so that's not likely a reproducible strategy for us. But if guys like Saunders, Fouss, or Egor can bait their bigs into some cheap fouls to get them into foul trouble, that would be huge. And even if not, BYU is great at driving and passing for higher quality shot attempts when not facing fear on-ball pressure (17 assists per game). On most possessions, the ball probably needs to touch the paint first before a shot should go up, regardless of where it comes from.
  • Bama is just okay at shooting the 3 this year (#109 in efficiency), whereas they are #3 in the country at offensive 2 point effieciency. BYU's biggest weakness is giving up a lot of 3 point attempts (#339). We don't want to give up open looks, but we probably will need to sag off just a half step to clog the paint, and then do our best to contest when they do decide to launch. Alabama's All-American PG Sears has only made 5 of his last 35 3 point attempts. We will need him and Alabama to go cold from 3.
    
    
• In true NBA playoff-style, find exploitable matchups
  • Sears is an All-American for a reason, but he is a 6'1" lefty. Sean Farnham on BYUSN yesterday was begging BYU's defenders to not let him go left. Can Mag (6'7") and Trey Stewart (6'2") hound him all 94 feet up and down the court, while riding his left hand?
  • Which Alabama players should BYU drag into PnR actions? Not sure there are a ton of good options, but... 
    • ...given Sears is short, can 6'9" Egor simply finish at the rim over Sears if he's on him, or pass over Sears to whoever is open?
    • ...Sean Farnham also said on BYUSN that he doesn't think Grant Nelson's knee is fully healthy. Can Egor or are other guards drive past him and get the Alabama defense rotating?
  • Alabama's defense is designed to give up the midrange shot all day. It's the least efficient shot in basketball, but sometimes in these high-stakes games, those are the most open looks you're going to get. And modern basketball analytics tell us that open shots are usually the best shots to take, even if the location is suboptimal. While we don't have a Tyler Haws on this team, given the Phoenix Suns had great midrange shooters with Booker, CP3, and Durrant, I wonder if Kevin Young is more open to:
    • Richie shooting his nearly automatic little floater. We may need to turn to it more than in past games.
    • More shots for Baker. He's good at dribbling to the elbow, and while I don't have the #s, I believe he's our best mid-range shooter.
    • Egor has also looked solid shooting the occasional shot from the elbow.

In all likelihood, Alabama would probably win in a 7-game series against BYU. Fortunately, it's just one game, where anything can happen. For BYU to win, they'll probably need to score at least 90, if not 100, while not let Alabama get going from 3. Beating top 10 Alabama would easily be the best win of the season, but BYU has played like a top 4 team during these last 12 games. In Kevin Young we trust.

Go Cougs!