John Ezekowitz works in finance but is better known as the expert who predicts NCAA Tournament upsets with astonishing accuracy. Even if you don’t know the difference between the Duke Blue Devils and the Grand Canyon Antelopes, you can look like a genius at the office this week simply by listening to his advice.

Over the years, his proprietary model has called for 41 upsets—and 28 of them, or 68.3%, have actually hit.

No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU
Ezekowitz: 55.9%
Pomeroy: 46%
BYU favored by 3.5 points

There are plenty of reasons to like VCU. The Rams have astounded the country before when they reached the Final Four as an 11-seed back in 2011. Their coach, Ryan Odom, was in charge of No. 16 UMBC when it made history and toppled No. 1 Virginia. And they excel at the things that turbocharge upsets.

For one, VCU collects 36.7% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds—one of the highest rates among tournament teams. The Rams are also nightmarish to try to score against: they had the No. 1 effective defensive field goal percentage in the country.

Want an even longer shot? Then consider 14-seeded Troy, one of the few teams that grabs even more rebounds than VCU. That’s why Ezekowitz says they have a 21.3% chance to oust No. 3 Kentucky.