Let me be clear. I don't post this every year. Many people said BYU could make the sweet sixteen last year. I didn't. In fact, I had concerns.
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=32734037

Why do I believe this?
1) KY has shown he can make effective in game adjustments. Just last game, KY talked about how his stats guy wanted the team to get to the rim more at halftime. That's exactly what they did, and they won by 20. Taking it to the rim wasn't the only adjustment, the offense was entirely based around Fouss. Fouss hadn't scored more that 12 points in 13 games! He'd been averaging 17 minutes in conference play! And KY had clever sets and plays to get him into position to score. (The inbounds play where Fouss broke free under the basket in half a second). Not only does KY make adjustments, KY has a lot of players to work with. BYU runs 11 deep and there are a lot of guys who can score in bunches on the roster.

The offseason is all about adjustments. Teams have 30+ games worth of footage on you. They'll know you're 1st and 2nd options. Can the opponent shut down those options and what happens after that?

2) BYU has shown sustained success and have peaked headed into March. One thing I sort for in choosing teams that can make deep runs in the tournament is win streaks. How many consecutive wins has a team strung together against good competition? To make it to the final 4, you've got to beat 4 great teams. Have you shown you can do that during the season? (I'm not prediciting BYU to the final four btw.) Also, when have those wins come? In 2023, Uconn was a 4 seed, and no one thought much of them headed into the tournament. They were 13-7 in conference, 4th in the Big East. It' not much to write home about. But when you flip to their schedule, in January they went 2-6, in their final 10 games they went 8-2. The team was ready for March. BYU is ready for March.

3) Post season experience. IMO getting upset in the first round leads to success the following year if the core players stay. Last year's loss was PAINFUL. BYU had high hopes last year. They were the statistical darling, with major pundits saying they can make a run. Knell, Saunders, Hall, Fouss, Trey, they all felt that loss. That experience leads to a team that's better prepared in the following year. For two extreme examples, Virginia got upset in the first round in 2018. First 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed ever. 2019, Virignia won the tournament. Another one, 2023, Purdue (1 seed) loses to Fairleigh Dickenson (16 seed). 2024, Purdue makes the tournament finals. Teams that suffer major upsets and keep core players are better prepared in the following year. Not only are the players prepared mentally, but KY has coached in a lot of post season scenarios. He knows how to coach up players and get them in the right mindset for the offseason.
Teams that KY was on in the NBA:
2017 Sixers: Missed the playoffs
2018 Sixers: Lost Eastern conference finals
2019 Sixers: Lost Eastern conference finals
2020 Sixers: Lost in 1st round
2021 Suns: Lost in Finals
2022 Suns: Lost in Western conference finals
2023 Suns: Lost in Western conference finals
2024 Suns: Lost in 1st round (thankfully so he could start his BYU job)
Now yes, KY was not the head coach of these teams, but he was in these rooms and learned what it takes to make playoff runs. NBA playoffs are different than college playoffs, BUT important games are important games.

4) And finally, BYU has blown out or beaten bubble teams. BYU is most likely to land in the 7-9 range and play a team that's on the bubble, or just off the bubble. BYU's record against bubble teams is 4-1. The one loss being on the road at Cincinnati. With this most recent win streak, BYU has shown it can beat decent-good competition.